714
FXUS63 KICT 031121
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
521 AM CST MON NOV 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY,
WITH A COOL DOWN EXPECTED BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
- LOW TO NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 141 AM CST MON NOV 3 2025
PRECIPITATION CHANCES:
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
NEXT 7-10 DAYS, AS MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS A MOSTLY ZONAL TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
BRIEF RAIN CHANCES OVER FAR EASTERN KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT, AS A
FLEET-FOOTED UPPER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE RACE
THROUGH MID-AMERICA, BUT THINKING BETTER CHANCES WILL BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES:
FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEK, PERIODIC WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES ARE
EXPECTED, AS A TRAIN OF FLEET-FOOTED LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES
PROGRESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS, BUT A PACIFIC SOURCE REGION IN
WAKE OF THESE FRONTS WILL PREVENT BIG COOL DOWNS. CONSEQUENTLY, AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF MOSTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 60S-70S LOOK PROBABLE, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. NORMAL HIGHS THIS TIME
OF YEAR ARE IN THE LOW-MID 60S, AND NORMAL LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 30S
TO NEAR 40 DEGREES.
AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS
THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGHER AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, WHICH SHOULD ENVELOP THE REGION IN A MORE
BONIFIDE COOL DOWN BY SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
IN THE 40S OR 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S. MODEL CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS THIS CHILLY AIRMASS LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK (NOV 10-
11), WITH ANOTHER WARMING TREND POSSIBLE THEREAFTER (BY NOV 12), AS
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EAST OVER THE REGION.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 518 AM CST MON NOV 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL,
SOUTH-CENTRAL, AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
IN WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL WEAKEN LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING, AND
SWITCH TO SOUTHEASTERLY.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...ADK
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