827
FXUS63 KICT 032322
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
522 PM CST MON NOV 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL KS
- ACTIVE, YET DRY PATTERN EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST MON NOV 3 2025
AS OF 2 PM MONDAY AFTERNOON, A MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM WEST
TX THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS LEAVES CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS
IN BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW. FURTHER WEST, A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WAS ADVANCING THROUGH EASTERN UT. AT THIS SURFACE, A WARM FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL OK AND INTO
SOUTHEAST KS. A NOTABLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXISTS ALONG THE FRONT
WITH 60S NORTH OF THE FRONT AND UPPER 70S SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
AS WE TRANSITION INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS ACROSS NE.
RAP/HRRR FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS CENTRAL KS REVEAL SMALL DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS AND LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. THIS MAY SUPPORT A HYBRID FOG
SETUP WITH RADIATIONAL AND ADVECTION COMPONENTS (ALONG THE WARM
FRONT). THIS FOG POTENTIAL IS SUPPORTED WITH HREF VISIBILITY
PROBABILITIES WITH AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL KS STANDING A >30% CHANCE
FOR VISIBILITIES DROPPING BELOW 2 MILES. ANY FOG IS LIKELY TO
REMAIN BRIEF WITH THE FOG PREDOMINATELY TIED TO THE FRONTAL
ZONE.
BY TUESDAY, THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL-NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE WITH THE SURFACE LOW
DEEPENING ACROSS WESTERN NE. THIS WILL PROMOTE INCREASING SOUTH
WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS, WHERE THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO RESIDE. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL SWEEP BACK
SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT AND PROGRESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
MEAGER (PW NEAR OR BELOW 0.50") AND WILL LIMIT ANY PROSPECTS FOR
RAINFALL.
MIDLEVEL RIDGING WILL ADVANCE INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO THE 60S AND 70S.
QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE RIDGE, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE A
SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. AGAIN, MEAGER
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL GREATLY LIMIT ANY POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD,
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL. THIS ACTIVE, YET DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A STRONGER MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, PUSHING A
STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO THE 50S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 522 PM CST MON NOV 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. PATCHY FOG RESULTING IN BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES IS
POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL KS AFTER 06Z, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW (20-30%)
FOR SPECIFIC MENTIONS AT ANY SITES AT THIS TIME.
A STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL RESULT IN LLWS AT SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KS SITES AROUND/AFTER 07Z AND DISSIPATE BY MID-MORNING.
OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PICK UP AROUND
15Z ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS, WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS AROUND 15 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. WINDS IN CENTRAL KS
WILL LIKELY AVOID THESE IMPACTS, WITH SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
THE 7-12 KT RANGE.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...JWK
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