718
FXUS63 KICT 041140
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
540 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL
KANSAS.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH A COOL
DOWN EXPECTED BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES AGAIN BY NEXT TUESDAY.
- LOW TO NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
FOG:
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO A COOLER AIRMASS IN RESPONSE TO A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH MAY SUPPORT SOME PATCHY FOG BETWEEN ABOUT 5
AM AND 10 AM THIS MORNING, MAINLY ALONG/NORTHWEST OF A LINE
EXTENDING FROM GREAT BEND TO SALINA. WE'RE NOT CONVINCED THE AIRMASS
IS COOL ENOUGH AND MOISTURE ADVECTION STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD FOG, BUT WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES:
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
NEXT 7-10 DAYS, AS MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS A MOSTLY ZONAL TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
BRIEF RAIN CHANCES OVER FAR EASTERN KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT, AS A
FLEET-FOOTED UPPER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE RACE
THROUGH MID-AMERICA, BUT THINKING BETTER CHANCES WILL BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE RICHER MOISTURE RESIDES.
TEMPERATURES:
FOR THIS WEEK, PERIODIC WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES ARE EXPECTED, AS
A TRAIN OF LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES PROGRESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CONUS, BUT A PACIFIC SOURCE REGION IN WAKE OF THESE FRONTS WILL
PREVENT BIG COOL DOWNS. CONSEQUENTLY, AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MOSTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE 60S-70S LOOK PROBABLE, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 40S TO LOW 50S. NORMAL HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE LOW-
MID 60S, AND NORMAL LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES.
AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A HIGHER AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, WHICH SHOULD ENVELOP THE REGION IN A MORE
BONIFIDE COOL DOWN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY.
FOR NOW WE'RE RUNNING WITH DAYTIME HIGHS SUNDAY-MONDAY IN THE UPPER
40S AND LOW 50S, ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE LATEST DATA SUPPORTS EVEN
COLDER DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S, WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S. TAKING INTO ACCOUNT BREEZY NORTH WINDS,
EVEN COLDER WIND CHILLS WOULD MATERIALIZE.
FINALLY, MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS UPPER RIDGING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING NEXT WEEK, SUPPORTING A RETURN TO NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 533 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL,
SOUTH-CENTRAL, AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
A 40-45 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT A FEW HOURS
OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WITHIN 1500 FT AGL EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR THE TAF SITES ICT-HUT-CNU. BY MID-LATE MORNING AND
PERSISTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, STOUT/GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER MAINLY EASTERN KANSAS, AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KTS ARE LIKELY,
STRONGEST AT THE TAF SITES ICT-CNU. LATER TONIGHT, A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION, WITH BREEZY NORTH
WINDS IN ITS WAKE.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...ADK
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