432
FXUS63 KICT 041801
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1201 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL
KANSAS.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH A COOL
DOWN EXPECTED BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES AGAIN BY NEXT TUESDAY.
- LOW TO NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
FOG:
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO A COOLER AIRMASS IN RESPONSE TO A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH MAY SUPPORT SOME PATCHY FOG BETWEEN ABOUT 5
AM AND 10 AM THIS MORNING, MAINLY ALONG/NORTHWEST OF A LINE
EXTENDING FROM GREAT BEND TO SALINA. WE'RE NOT CONVINCED THE AIRMASS
IS COOL ENOUGH AND MOISTURE ADVECTION STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD FOG, BUT WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES:
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
NEXT 7-10 DAYS, AS MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS A MOSTLY ZONAL TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
BRIEF RAIN CHANCES OVER FAR EASTERN KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT, AS A
FLEET-FOOTED UPPER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE RACE
THROUGH MID-AMERICA, BUT THINKING BETTER CHANCES WILL BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE RICHER MOISTURE RESIDES.
TEMPERATURES:
FOR THIS WEEK, PERIODIC WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES ARE EXPECTED, AS
A TRAIN OF LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES PROGRESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CONUS, BUT A PACIFIC SOURCE REGION IN WAKE OF THESE FRONTS WILL
PREVENT BIG COOL DOWNS. CONSEQUENTLY, AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MOSTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE 60S-70S LOOK PROBABLE, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 40S TO LOW 50S. NORMAL HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE LOW-
MID 60S, AND NORMAL LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES.
AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A HIGHER AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, WHICH SHOULD ENVELOP THE REGION IN A MORE
BONIFIDE COOL DOWN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY.
FOR NOW WE'RE RUNNING WITH DAYTIME HIGHS SUNDAY-MONDAY IN THE UPPER
40S AND LOW 50S, ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE LATEST DATA SUPPORTS EVEN
COLDER DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S, WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S. TAKING INTO ACCOUNT BREEZY NORTH WINDS,
EVEN COLDER WIND CHILLS WOULD MATERIALIZE.
FINALLY, MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS UPPER RIDGING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING NEXT WEEK, SUPPORTING A RETURN TO NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WIDESPREAD CIRRUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS UPPER JET EXTENDS ACROSS
WESTERN KS. SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING AND WILL FLIP WINDS AROUND TO THE
NORTH. IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH KRSL-KGBD AROUND 09Z AND
KHUT-KICT AROUND 11Z. NO PRECIPITATION OR LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...RBL
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