457
FXUS63 KICT 050517
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1117 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WEAK COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER
TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
- STRONG COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY TO BRING FIRST COLD
SHOT OF THE SEASON.
- LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
REST OF THE WORK WEEK...
IN GENERAL, STRONG ZONAL UPPER FLOW EXTENDS ACROSS THE CONUS. A FLAT
RIDGE RESIDES ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST, AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WILL ROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS RIDGE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER
NORTHERN NEBRASKA/SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL ARRIVE EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AFTER THIS TROUGH/FRONT PASSES,
BREEZY NORTHERN WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND HELP TO USHER IN
COOLER AIR ACROSS THE REGION AND HELP BRING TEMPERATURES A BIT
CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER A BIT
ON THURSDAY, AND LOW TO MID 70S COULD RETURN AREA-WIDE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS SET TO ARRIVE ON FRIDAY, AND PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY ON FRIDAY WILL BRING
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS, AND THE BEGINNING OF A TREND OF COOLING
TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...
A SERIES OF MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO PASS OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF A DEEPENING LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
RESULT OF THIS MID/UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE A COUPLE OF WEAKER
FRONT EARLY THIS WEEKEND KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE FOLLOWED
BY A STRONG COLD FRONT SET TO ARRIVE AS SOON AS SATURDAY NIGHT OR AS
LATE AS SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST REAL COLD SHOT THE
REGION WILL SEE THIS SEASON WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S AND LOWS
IN THE 20S AND 30S SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
MONDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE WEEK WITH LOWS
POTENTIALLY IN THE 20S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY RECOVER GOING INTO THE MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK.
PRECIPITATION...
DESPITE NUMEROUS FRONTAL PASSAGES OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS, DRY AIR WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERING NORTHWEST KANSAS LATE THIS EVENING
WILL CONTINUE RACING SOUTH AND SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NNE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY. BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS AT TIMES BEFORE
DIMINISHING BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...MWM
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