920
FXUS63 KICT 051725
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1125 AM CST WED NOV 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY.
- MUCH COLDER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES AGAIN BY NEXT TUESDAY.
- LOW TO NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 217 AM CST WED NOV 5 2025
PRECIPITATION CHANCES:
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
NEXT 7-10 DAYS, AS MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS A MOSTLY ZONAL TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
BRIEF RAIN OR SPRINKLE CHANCES OVER FAR EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS
THURSDAY NIGHT, AS A FAST-MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK
COLD FRONT RACE THROUGH MID-AMERICA, BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL BE
WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE RICHER MOISTURE RESIDES.
TEMPERATURES:
PERIODIC WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS
WEEK, AS A TRAIN OF LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES PROGRESS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CONUS, BUT A PACIFIC SOURCE REGION IN WAKE OF THESE FRONTS
WILL PREVENT BIG COOL DOWNS. CONSEQUENTLY, NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 60S
TO LOW 70S LOOK PROBABLE, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S TO
LOW 50S. NORMAL HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE LOW-MID 60S, AND
NORMAL LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES.
AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A HIGHER AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, WHICH WILL ENVELOP THE REGION IN BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH
MONDAY, AS ANOMALOUS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND COOLER DURING THIS PERIOD. CONSEQUENTLY,
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S ARE LIKELY SUNDAY-MONDAY, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. TAKING INTO ACCOUNT STOUT/GUSTY NORTH WINDS, EVEN COLDER WIND
CHILLS IN THE 10S-20S ARE LIKELY, COLDEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS.
FINALLY, MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS UPPER RIDGING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING NEXT WEEK, SUPPORTING A RETURN TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CST WED NOV 5 2025
AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST MO INT SOUTHERN OK
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING-IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL KEEP
CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECREASE AS THE EARLY EVENING HOURS APPROACH
AND VEER AROUND TO THE EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST BY THU MORNING.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...RBL
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