734
FXUS63 KICT 060501
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1101 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY AND MILD TODAY. TEMPS RECOVER SLIGHTLY FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
- STRONG COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY TO BRING FIRST COLD SHOT OF
THE SEASON. WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS IN THE 20S LIKELY MONDAY MORNING.
- LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 155 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
REST OF THE WORK WEEK...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW SUBTLE RIDGING
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND A POWERFUL TROUGH ENTERING THE PNW.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE SLIDING EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO AND WILL PROMOTE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S, AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND
50S. A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY BRINGING LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT; HOWEVER,
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GENERALLY SPEAKING, BOTH HIGH AND
LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...
A SERIES OF MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO PASS OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF A DEEPENING LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL PROMOTE A STRONG SURFACE
RESPONSE WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ON THE LEEWARD SIDE OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL SWIFTLY PROGRESS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST ON SATURDAY. BEHIND THIS FEATURE, A
STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL SINK INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS, AND WILL LIKELY BRING THE AREA'S FIRST REAL SHOT OF COLD
AIR THIS SEASON. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT GUSTY NORTHERLY/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CURRENTLY, NBM GUIDANCE IS
LIKELY A BIT TOO LOW WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS ON SATURDAY
(AND POTENTIALLY EARLY SUNDAY), SO WINDS WERE BUMPED UP A BIT TO
MATCH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF. WIND GUSTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON COULD APPROACH 40 TO 45 MPH AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE I-70 CORRIDOR. GFS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WINDS COULD BE
STRONGER AND MAY LAST WELL INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER,
THERE'S SOME UNCERTAINTY AS THE GFS TENDS TO BE AGGRESSIVE WITH
HOW DEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES, SO TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED. REGARDLESS, SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH COLDER WITH MORNING
WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND 20S ALONG WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
SOLIDLY STAYING IN THE 40S. THE AREA'S FIRST HARD FREEZE IS
LIKELY MONDAY WITH DRY AIR, CLEAR SKIES, AND LIGHT WINDS
MAXIMIZING RADIATIONAL COOLING AND PLUNGING TEMPERATURES INTO
THE LOW TO MID 20S. THIS IS ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RECOVER MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION...
DESPITE NUMEROUS FRONTAL PASSAGES OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS, DRY AIR WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
HAVE BECOME LIGHT AND HAVE TURNED OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST FOR
CENTRAL KANSAS TAF SITES, REMAINING OUT OF THE EAST IN SOUTH-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GAIN A MORE
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, BECOMING
DUE SOUTHERLY BY LATE MORNING AREAWIDE. LOOK FOR WINDS TO
INCREASE FOR THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME, GUSTING TO BETWEEN 20-25
KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. AS WINDS DIMINISH AFTER
00Z, THEY WILL BECOME WESTERLY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 155 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND 20 TO 30
MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40 TO 45 MPH AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS PAIRED WITH RH VALUES
AROUND 25-30% WILL SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF VERY HIGH GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, COOLER TEMPERATURES (HOVERING AROUND 60
DEGREES) WILL HAMPER THE LIKELIHOOD A FIRES CAN START, DESPITE
THE INCREASED FUELS ACROSS THE AREA.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...AMD
FIRE WEATHER...JC
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