172
FXUS63 KICT 061138
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
538 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY.
- MUCH COLDER BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY.
STRONG/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES AGAIN BY TUESDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.
- LOW TO NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 157 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
PRECIPITATION CHANCES:
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
NEXT 7-10 DAYS, AS MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS A DRY ZONAL TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW
SPRINKLES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS, AS A FAST-
MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT RACE THROUGH
MID-AMERICA, BUT LACK OF STRONG FORCING AMIDST MEAGER MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY PREVENT ANYTHING OTHER THAN A FEW SPRINKLES AT BEST.
TEMPERATURES:
TWO MORE DAYS OF WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S-70S ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AND FRIDAY, WITH THE AIRMASS IN WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE
TONIGHT MAINLY PACIFIC IN NATURE, CONTINUING THE TREND OF MILD
WEATHER THAT HAS PREVAILED THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS
A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS, WHICH WILL ENVELOP THE REGION IN WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY, AS
ANOMALOUS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO TREND COOLER DURING THIS PERIOD. CONSEQUENTLY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ARE LIKELY SUNDAY,
WARMING INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S MONDAY, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
20S AND 30S SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TAKING INTO ACCOUNT
STOUT/GUSTY NORTH WINDS, EVEN COLDER WIND CHILLS IN THE 10S-20S ARE
LIKELY, COLDEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.
THE COOL DOWN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH, AS MODEL CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS UPPER RIDGING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING NEXT WEEK,
RESULTING IN A RETURN TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.
WIND:
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY, PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, AND GRADUALLY
DECREASING SUNDAY, AS A POWERFUL COLD FRONT BLASTS SOUTH THROUGH MID-
AMERICA. LOADED IN THE UPPER ENVELOPE OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR WIND
SPEEDS AND GUSTS, AND THAT MAY NOT EVEN BE HIGH ENOUGH BASED ON
MIXING VALUES FROM GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. THINKING GUSTS UPWARDS
OF 40-45+ MPH ARE LIKELY, STRONGEST FROM AROUND MIDDAY SATURDAY
THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 532 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL,
SOUTH-CENTRAL, AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY ACROSS THE AREA
AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON. OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS IMPACTING MAINLY THE CNU
TAF SITE, INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT SCT-BKN
VFR CLOUDS AROUND 4000-6000 FT AGL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FOR THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WINDS SWITCH TO LIGHT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 157 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
FIRE WEATHER... STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS, SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES, AND HUMIDITY IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S PERCENT WILL
SUPPORT VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER SATURDAY FOR PASTURES AT
LEAST 80-90 PERCENT CURED.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...ADK
FIRE WEATHER...ADK
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