515
FXUS63 KICT 061747
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1147 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY.
- MUCH COLDER BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY.
STRONG/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES AGAIN BY TUESDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.
- LOW TO NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 157 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
PRECIPITATION CHANCES:
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
NEXT 7-10 DAYS, AS MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS A DRY ZONAL TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW
SPRINKLES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS, AS A FAST-
MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT RACE THROUGH
MID-AMERICA, BUT LACK OF STRONG FORCING AMIDST MEAGER MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY PREVENT ANYTHING OTHER THAN A FEW SPRINKLES AT BEST.
TEMPERATURES:
TWO MORE DAYS OF WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S-70S ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AND FRIDAY, WITH THE AIRMASS IN WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE
TONIGHT MAINLY PACIFIC IN NATURE, CONTINUING THE TREND OF MILD
WEATHER THAT HAS PREVAILED THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS
A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS, WHICH WILL ENVELOP THE REGION IN WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY, AS
ANOMALOUS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO TREND COOLER DURING THIS PERIOD. CONSEQUENTLY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ARE LIKELY SUNDAY,
WARMING INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S MONDAY, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
20S AND 30S SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TAKING INTO ACCOUNT
STOUT/GUSTY NORTH WINDS, EVEN COLDER WIND CHILLS IN THE 10S-20S ARE
LIKELY, COLDEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.
THE COOL DOWN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH, AS MODEL CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS UPPER RIDGING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING NEXT WEEK,
RESULTING IN A RETURN TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.
WIND:
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY, PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, AND GRADUALLY
DECREASING SUNDAY, AS A POWERFUL COLD FRONT BLASTS SOUTH THROUGH MID-
AMERICA. LOADED IN THE UPPER ENVELOPE OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR WIND
SPEEDS AND GUSTS, AND THAT MAY NOT EVEN BE HIGH ENOUGH BASED ON
MIXING VALUES FROM GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. THINKING GUSTS UPWARDS
OF 40-45+ MPH ARE LIKELY, STRONGEST FROM AROUND MIDDAY SATURDAY
THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH LEVEL
CIRRUS THE PRIMARY CLOUD COVER. WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZY OUT
OF THE S THROUGH MID AFTERNOON, THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND VEER
TO THE SW-W LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. EXPECT A
WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE TO TURN WINDS TO THE WNW-NW BETWEEN 03Z TO
06Z (FROM NW TO SE), WHICH WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY WIND
DIRECTION INTO FRIDAY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 6-11KT.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...JTT NWS HASTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...ADK
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