273
FXUS63 KICT 062331
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
531 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM/MILD FOR ONE MORE DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS MUCH
COOLER, AND WINDIER, CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.
- COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
HIGHS STUCK IN THE 40S ON SUNDAY, AND LOWS DOWN INTO THE UPPER
TEENS AND 20S MONDAY AM.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN TUESDAY AND PERSIST MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.
- VERY LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR MOISTURE FOR THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON
FRIDAY, WITH JUST SOME OCCASIONAL HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND A
WIND SHIFT FROM THE S TO THE WNW/NW. DESPITE THE WIND SHIFT
TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO TODAY
AND MILD FOR EARLY NOVEMBER - GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE SHOULD MAKE FOR A VERY PLEASANT
END TO THE WORK WEEK.
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PLOW THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT, LEADING TO STRONG, BLUSTERY NW WINDS AND
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED WITH THE UPPER END OF
FORECAST GUIDANCE FOR WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT GIVEN FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS (E.G. STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FLOW IN THE LOWEST FEW KM) AND
TIMING OF LOW LEVEL SPEED MAX. EXPECT PEAK GUSTS TO RANGE IN THE
35 TO 45 MPH RANGE, HIGHEST FROM MIDDAY SATURDAY THROUGH LATE
EVENING, AND HIGHEST TOWARDS THE I-70 CORRIDOR. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL, AS WELL, PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS
W OF I-135, WHICH WILL HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR RHS TO
FALL TO AROUND 25 PERCENT.
THE OTHER BIG STORY IN TERMS OF IMPACTS FROM THE STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY MAY STILL TRY TO CLIMB TO AROUND 60 DEGREES, BUT IT'LL
FEEL MUCH CHILLIER WITH THE WIND. DEEPER COLD AIR WILL FILTER IN
SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIMIT HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO ONLY THE LOW TO MID
40S. WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE N, BUT NOT NEARLY
AS STRONG AS SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OF
THE FALL SEASON (THUS FAR) WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO
THE REGION ON SUNDAY, AND REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE INTO MONDAY.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR COLD LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S MONDAY. FORTUNATELY, THE COLD AIR IS FAIRLY SHORT-
LIVED AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN RETURNING
NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. IN FACT, EACH AFTERNOON TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY COULD
MAKE A RUN INTO THE LOW 70S FOR AT LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE COINCIDENT WITH THE OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF
WEAK TO MODERATE SYNOPTIC LIFT MEAN A COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST
FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS, AND PROBABLY EVEN BEYOND THAT A FEW DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 522 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY 09-12Z
LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE TURNING NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH 12Z. LOOK FOR WINDS TO
REACH BETWEEN 10-12 KTS FOR RSL AND GBD AFTER SUNRISE.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JTT NWS HASTINGS
AVIATION...AMD
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