044
FXUS63 KICT 071131
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
531 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON SATURDAY BRINGING STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS AND MUCH COOLER AIR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
- WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUESDAY, PERSISTING THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.
- DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 111 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE AREA TODAY WITH ONLY SOME
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY IN THE DAY ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 FOR MOST AREAS.
A MORE ROBUST COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIGS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WITH STEEP LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES/ROBUST CAA. TIME/HEIGHT X-
SECTIONS OF WIND/MIXING LAYER HEIGHT SUGGEST SOME GUSTS OF 40-45
KNOTS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY IN OUR CENTRAL KS
COUNTIES. HREF NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES FOR > 30 KTS SUGGEST
HIGHER PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN FURTHER NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY STRUGGLING TO REACH 40 IN SOME
AREAS. AS THE SFC RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA EARLY ON MONDAY WE
EXPECT STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE TEENS
AND 20S IN SOME AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ON MONDAY
WHILE REMAINING BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER.
TUE-THU...A MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE
ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN AREA WHILE NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW PREVAILS
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO MORE
TRANQUIL AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE AREA. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO
THE 60S AND 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S
LATE IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 529 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS ALTHOUGH
THIS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND DISSIPATE BY AROUND 14Z AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT SHIFTS WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND USHERS IN SOME
DRIER AIR. VFR IS ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER WHILE WINDS BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 111 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AROUND 25 PERCENT IN PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN A VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...MWM
FIRE WEATHER...MWM
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