119
FXUS63 KICT 020511
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1111 PM CST THU JAN 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN TO SOUTHEAST KS EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.
- DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLE RAIN CHANCES RETURNING LATE NEXT
WEEK.
- BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS LIKELY ON SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 202 PM CST THU JAN 1 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS, RESULTING IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
ADDITIONALLY, AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ONSHORE INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE SITS OVER CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT DRAPED DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING, ALLOWING MID-LEVEL TO HIGH CLOUDS TO SETTLE
INTO THE AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO CLIP OUR
AREA NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER, BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW GIVEN THE DRY
LAYER FORECAST IN THE LOW-LEVELS. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL STAY
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA IN OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. PATCHY FOG
IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST KS FRIDAY MORNING
GIVEN THE SMALL DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AND LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER, THERE
IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FOG POTENTIAL AS THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL
CLOUDS COULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY
ARE A BIT TRICKY AS CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHEAST KS WITH SOME BREAKAGE IN CLOUDS MORE LIKELY IN SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 40S IN CENTRAL KS
TO THE 50S IN PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO STAY NORTHEAST OF OUR
AREA. FOLLOWING THIS SHORTWAVE, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS PROGGED TO
AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE WITH
INCREASING TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN CENTRAL KS TO THE UPPER
40S IN SOUTHEAST KS.
ON SUNDAY, A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS,
INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL
INCREASE SUSTAINED WINDS TO 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KS ON SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY WITH FLOW ALOFT
BECOMING MORE ZONAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE WITH MOST OF THE AREA SEEING HIGHS IN THE
60S TO START NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES MAY RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK TO
THE AREA, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CST THU JAN 1 2026
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO FURTHER INDICATE LIGHT
COLUMN WINDS AND SATURATION TO THE SURFACE AT SLN AND RSL THROUGH
MID/LATE MORNING, WHICH SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. DECIDED TO
MAINTAIN THE 1SM MENTION AT THESE SITES FOR THIS CYCLE, THOUGH PER
PRIOR DISCUSSIONS, HIGHER CLOUDS MAY PREVENT OPTIMAL RADIATION
COOLING TO PROMOTE WIDESPREAD VSBY REDUCTIONS.
LOOK FOR LOW CIGS TO GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT THROUGHOUT THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES, WITH VFR AND LIGHT
WINDS ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...JWK
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