940
FXUS63 KICT 041052
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
452 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES (20-30%) RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY, MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE PLAINS AS A RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVERHEAD. AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST AND CURRENTLY RESIDES WITHIN THE MS
VALLEY. LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ARE PRODUCING PATCHY FOG
FORMATION ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS. THIS FOG WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. TRANSITIONING INTO THIS AFTERNOON, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH
DEEPENING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL PROMOTE INCREASING
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH, ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS NORTH WEST OF THE KS TURNPIKE. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
PROMOTE WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS TO THE MID 60S ACROSS CENTRAL KS. THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD 60S THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MID TO LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK AS A SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE REMAINS LARGE SPREAD IN DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE TRACK OF THE TROUGH, THEREFORE CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT. STAY TUNED.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 449 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
PATCHY FOG WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. LLWS CONCERNS WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL KS THIS MORNING
AS A LLJ NEAR 1.4 KFT STRENGTHENS TO 45-50 KT. THESE LLWS
CONCERNS WILL SUBSIDE BY LATE MORNING AS SURFACE WINDS INCREASE
TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KT. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 10 KT
OR LESS BY 00Z THIS EVENING.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...BRF
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