133
FXUS63 KICT 050755
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
155 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AREAWIDE THIS MORNING
- WARM AND DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN (30-50%) FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 153 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
AS OF 145 AM MONDAY MORNING, QUASI-ZONAL MIDLEVEL FLOW WAS
PRESENT ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS SLIDING
ACROSS THE STATE. A DEEPENING MIDLEVEL TROUGH WAS COMING ON-
SHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. INCREASING CYCLONIC FLOW
ACROSS THE ROCKIES IS CONTRIBUTING TO A GRADUAL DEEPENING OF A
LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS WITH WINDS CURRENTLY
IN THE 5-15 MPH RANGE. A HYBRID FOG SETUP MAY DEVELOP TOWARDS
DAWN WITH SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS COMBINED WITH WEAK
MOISTURE ADVECTION. THE LATEST HREF AND NBM PROBABILITIES PAINT
GENERALLY SOUTH-CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST KS WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1 MILE (40-50%) .
FORTUNATELY, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING,
MITIGATING ANY POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING FOG. AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING ENSUES AFTER SUNRISE, ANY FOG SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
TRANSITIONING INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY, A WEAK, LEAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL EJECT FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ACROSS NORTHERN KS/NE.
THIS WILL SHUNT THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR-60 ACROSS CENTRAL
KS TO THE MID-60S ELSEWHERE. THE QUASI-ZONAL MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE OVERALL MIDLEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK AS LONGWAVE MIDLEVEL TROUGHING BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL US. THE INITIAL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES THURSDAY
MORNING AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS. THERMAL PROFILES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
AND SUPPORT AN ALL-RAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE MAIN
MIDLEVEL TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY,
PRECIPITATION MAY TRANSITION TO SNOW. THE LATEST NBM AND EPS
PROBABILISTIC DATA SUGGEST THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE THAN 1
INCH OF SNOWFALL FRIDAY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST CO THROUGH NORTH-
CENTRAL KS (40-60%). THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE MIDLEVEL
TROUGH CAN (AND LIKELY WILL) SHIFT AND THESE TRENDS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. STAY TUNED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT HAVE DECREASED TO AROUND OR UNDER
5 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH HIGH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT OF THE
REGION, THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN TO SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN
KANSAS, DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VISIBILITIES COULD DROP
BELOW 2 MILES AT TIMES ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE KANSAS
TURNPIKE BETWEEN 10-16Z MONDAY MORNING. AFTER 17Z, VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY AS A WEAK
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...JC
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