202
FXUS63 KICT 060453
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1053 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
- INCREASING RAIN CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY,
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
- POTENTIAL LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH.
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY, COOLING BACK
CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 217 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
FOG:
LINGERING MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING EAST MAY
SUPPORT PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY OVER FAR SOUTHEAST
KANSAS. SIMILAR TO EARLY THIS MORNING, THE FOG COULD BE LOCALLY
DENSE, ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AT THIS TIME.
PRECIPITATION:
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
SURROUNDING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY, AS A "LEAD" SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF A DEEPENING WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH RACES NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION, AND INTERACTS WITH A
SHARPENING FRONTAL ZONE AND UNSEASONABLY RICH MOISTURE. LATEST DATA
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
MEDIAN NBM AMOUNTS SUPPORT UP TO AROUND ONE-HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS
OF AN INCH GIVE OR TAKE, WITH ISOLATED HIGHER-END AMOUNTS OVER ONE
INCH POSSIBLE PER THE NBM 90TH PERCENTILE.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH
EJECTS EAST ONTO THE PLAINS AND COLDER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE
NORTH, MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS MODEST CHANCES FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS RATHER
HIGH SURROUNDING THESE CHANCES, ALONG WITH ANY POTENTIAL SNOW
AMOUNTS OR AREAL PLACEMENT, AS RUN-TO-RUN AND MODEL-TO-MODEL
CONSISTENCY HAS PROVEN POOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. STAY TUNED AS WE
CONTINUE TO REFINE FORECAST DETAILS IN THE COMING DAYS.
TEMPERATURES:
FAST QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP POLAR AND ARCTIC AIR BOTTLED
UP WELL NORTH OF THE REGION THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, SUPPORTING
CONTINUED WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW-
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S-40S. AVERAGE HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE
IN THE LOW-MID 40S, AND AVERAGE LOWS ARE IN THE LOW-MID 20S. RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE IN JEOPARDY FOR TUESDAY.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, A COLD
FRONT IS SLATED TO COOL TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL, WITH
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS SUPPORTING CHILLY WIND CHILLS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
GENERALLY SPEAKING, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE'S A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
ALONG AND EAST OF THE FLINT HILLS EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG A
SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER, THE DENSEST FOG LOOKS TO STAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI FOR NOW.
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO PRIMARILY WESTERLY, BUT MAY SHIFT BACK TO
SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY. WIND SPEEDS HAVE GENERALLY
DROPPED BELOW 10 KNOTS, AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. HOWEVER, PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS COULD SEE WIND
SPEEDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING
AGAIN THIS EVENING.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...JC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page