329
FXUS63 KICT 060918
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
318 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH 7 AM
- SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING
- RAIN AND/OR SNOW POSSIBLE FRIDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
AS OF 3 AM, A WEAK MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS ADVANCING ACROSS
SOUTHERN IA WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST IA
THROUGH SOUTHEAST KS. IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS, SMALL
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WITH WEAK WAA WERE CONTRIBUTING TO AREAS
OF DENSE FOG. SEVERAL OBSERVATIONS SITES ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING
VISIBILITIES OF 1/4 MILE. AS THE SURFACE TROUGH DEPARTS THE
AREA BY 7 AM, DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN, DISSIPATING THE ONGOING
FOG. OTHERWISE QUASI-ZONAL MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH TEMPERATURES PREDOMINATELY IN THE 60S.
THE OVERALL MIDLEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK AS LONGWAVE MIDLEVEL TROUGHING BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL US. THE INITIAL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES THURSDAY
MORNING AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS. THERMAL PROFILES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
AND SUPPORT AN ALL-RAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE. IN-FACT, MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES MAY STEEPEN JUST ENOUGH FOR A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KS. WHILE SEVERE
WEATHER HIS NOT EXPECTED, A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. MORE IMPORTANTLY, WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL APPEARS
LIKELY, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF I-135. LATEST ENSEMBLE MEAN
VALUES FROM THE EPS, GEFS, AND SREF HAVE ALIGNED WITH MUCH OF
EASTERN KS RECEIVING 0.5-1" OF RAINFALL.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S FRIDAY
MORNING. AS THE MAIN MIDLEVEL TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY, PRECIPITATION MAY TRANSITION TO SNOW FRIDAY
MORNING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE LATEST NBM, EPS, AND GEFS
PROBABILISTIC DATA HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTHEAST (GEFS
WITH THE GREATEST SOUTHEASTWARD SHIFT) WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW (1+"), ALTHOUGH THE GREATEST
AXIS STILL EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST CO THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL KS
AND INTO NORTH-CENTRAL KS. THESE TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BEHIND THIS TROUGH AXIS,
QUASI-ZONAL MIDLEVEL FLOW RETURNS TO THE PLAINS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE 40S AND 50S THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
GENERALLY SPEAKING, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE'S A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
ALONG AND EAST OF THE FLINT HILLS EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG A
SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER, THE DENSEST FOG LOOKS TO STAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI FOR NOW.
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO PRIMARILY WESTERLY, BUT MAY SHIFT BACK TO
SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY. WIND SPEEDS HAVE GENERALLY
DROPPED BELOW 10 KNOTS, AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. HOWEVER, PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS COULD SEE WIND
SPEEDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING
AGAIN THIS EVENING.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ071-072-
095-096-099-100.
DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...JC
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