060
FXUS63 KICT 061728
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1128 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH 7 AM
- SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING
- RAIN AND/OR SNOW POSSIBLE FRIDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
AS OF 3 AM, A WEAK MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS ADVANCING ACROSS
SOUTHERN IA WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST IA
THROUGH SOUTHEAST KS. IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS, SMALL
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WITH WEAK WAA WERE CONTRIBUTING TO AREAS
OF DENSE FOG. SEVERAL OBSERVATIONS SITES ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING
VISIBILITIES OF 1/4 MILE. AS THE SURFACE TROUGH DEPARTS THE
AREA BY 7 AM, DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN, DISSIPATING THE ONGOING
FOG. OTHERWISE QUASI-ZONAL MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH TEMPERATURES PREDOMINATELY IN THE 60S.
THE OVERALL MIDLEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK AS LONGWAVE MIDLEVEL TROUGHING BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL US. THE INITIAL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES THURSDAY
MORNING AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS. THERMAL PROFILES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
AND SUPPORT AN ALL-RAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE. IN-FACT, MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES MAY STEEPEN JUST ENOUGH FOR A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KS. WHILE SEVERE
WEATHER HIS NOT EXPECTED, A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. MORE IMPORTANTLY, WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL APPEARS
LIKELY, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF I-135. LATEST ENSEMBLE MEAN
VALUES FROM THE EPS, GEFS, AND SREF HAVE ALIGNED WITH MUCH OF
EASTERN KS RECEIVING 0.5-1" OF RAINFALL.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S FRIDAY
MORNING. AS THE MAIN MIDLEVEL TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY, PRECIPITATION MAY TRANSITION TO SNOW FRIDAY
MORNING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE LATEST NBM, EPS, AND GEFS
PROBABILISTIC DATA HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTHEAST (GEFS
WITH THE GREATEST SOUTHEASTWARD SHIFT) WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW (1+"), ALTHOUGH THE GREATEST
AXIS STILL EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST CO THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL KS
AND INTO NORTH-CENTRAL KS. THESE TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BEHIND THIS TROUGH AXIS,
QUASI-ZONAL MIDLEVEL FLOW RETURNS TO THE PLAINS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE 40S AND 50S THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH AND TURN
WESTERLY LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY
BETWEEN 15-18Z AND INCREASE ABOVE 10 KNOTS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 531 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE TODAY
SITE: FORECAST HIGH: RECORD (YEAR):
WICHITA 63 63 (1903)
SALINA 60 62 (1939)
RUSSELL 61 61 (2019)
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...AMD
CLIMATE...BRF
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