624
FXUS63 KICT 062316
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
516 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY AREAWIDE.
- POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR LIGHT TO MODEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH NIGHT, ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS.
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY, COOLING BACK
CLOSER TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 201 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT--THURSDAY:
THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS HAS INCREASED
MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY,
AS A "LEAD" SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF A DEEPENING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH
RACES NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION, AND INTERACTS WITH A SHARPENING
FRONTAL ZONE AND UNSEASONABLY RICH PRECIPITABLE WATERS. NBM
50TH PERCENTILE PROGS SUPPORT THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ONE-HALF TO
THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL GENERALLY ALONG/EAST OF
I-135, WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER ONE INCH POSSIBLE PER 90TH
PERCENTILE PROGS. COULD EVEN SEE A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS, WITH MUCAPE PROGS UP TO
AROUND 300-500 J/KG, ALTHOUGH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.
SNOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON--NIGHT:
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AS THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH EJECTS
EAST ONTO THE PLAINS AND COLDER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTH, THE
LATEST DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO MODEST ACCUMULATING SNOW, MAINLY ALONG/NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50. CHANCES HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE AND MODEL
SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO BE "TIGHTENING UP" ON A RELATIVELY COMMON
SOLUTION SUPPORTING A GENERALLY SWATH OF 1-3 INCHES, ALTHOUGH THERE
CERTAINLY IS REMAINING UNCERTAINTY ON AMPLITUDE/STRENGTH AND LOCATION
OF THE EJECTING UPPER TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY, THE POTENTIAL FOR
MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS AND RELATIVELY WARM GROUND
TEMPERATURES COULD REDUCE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS, ESPECIALLY IN THE
PRESENCE OF LOWER SNOWFALL RATES. STAY TUNED AS WE CONTINUE TO
REFINE FORECAST DETAILS IN THE COMING DAYS.
TEMPERATURES:
FAST QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP POLAR AND ARCTIC AIR BOTTLED
UP WELL NORTH OF THE REGION THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, SUPPORTING
CONTINUED WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW-
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S-40S, AND LOW 50S OVER SOUTHERN-SOUTHEAST
KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AVERAGE HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE
LOW-MID 40S, AND AVERAGE LOWS ARE IN THE LOW-MID 20S.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT IS
SLATED TO COOL TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL, OR EVEN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL, WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS SUPPORTING CHILLY WIND
CHILLS AS WELL.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 516 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. LIGHT WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
OVERNIGHT AND STRENGTHEN BY MID/LATE MORNING. CURRENT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE 12-15 KT RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS CLOUDS AROUND 20 KFT FILL IN THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...JWK
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