234
FXUS63 KICT 202103
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
303 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY
- STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT PLUNGING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 10S/20S FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
- INCREASING POTENTIAL (60-80%) FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY AFTERNOON, LARGE SCALE MIDLEVEL TROUGHING
REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
ADVANCING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. AN ATTENDANT SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST WY THROUGH SOUTHEAST CO. A
STRENGTHENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS CONTRIBUTING TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 40S AREAWIDE.
TRANSITIONING INTO TONIGHT, THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, SHUNTING THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA. QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS, AN AREA OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF CO/TX WEDNESDAY
MORNING, RESULTING IN WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE 40S TO NEAR
50 ONCE AGAIN. THE NEXT WEAK PERTURBATION WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE MID-
MO VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, SHUNTING THE NEXT COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE 40S THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS ARRIVES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS POISED TO EJECT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, PLUNGING AN ARCTIC AIRMASS ACROSS THE
PLAINS. FRIDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS CENTRAL KS TO THE TEENS ACROSS SOUTHERN KS. FACTORING
IN A NORTHERN BREEZE UP TO 20 MPH WILL CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES AS
COLD AS -15. THE COLD PLUNGE WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS NBM PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR DAYTIME HIGHS
REMAINING INTO THE TEENS EACH DAY. AS IT STANDS NOW, FRIDAY'S
PROBABILITIES RANGE FROM NEAR 50% ALONG THE OK BORDER TO NEAR 100%
ALONG I-70. THESE PROBABILITIES EXPAND AND INCREASE TO 80-100%
AREAWIDE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN REGARDS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS, NBM
PROBABILITIES RANGE FROM 70-100% FOR TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 10
DEGREES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS. FACTORING IN THE CONTINUED
NORTH WIND WILL CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES AS COLD AS -20 SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY MORNINGS.
IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES, THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL STRENGTHEN A MIDLEVEL JET STREAK FROM
THE MID-MS VALLEY THROUGH THE NORTHEAST US FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
IT'S BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THIS JET
STREAK WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR LIGHT SNOW
FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE ARCTIC AIR WILL
USHER IN A TREMENDOUSLY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER, CHARACTERIZED OF DEW
POINTS IN THE -20 TO -30 DEGREE RANGE. THESE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS OF 25-35 DEGREES. THIS MAY DELAY THE ONSET OF
SNOWFALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES
FRIDAY EVENING/FRIDAY NIGHT, TOP-DOWN SATURATION SHOULD OCCUR FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH SNOWFALL BEGINNING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL A DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER THROUGHOUT THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE (UPWARDS OF 3KM FROM 1-4KM). THIS COMBINED
WITH THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL
SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. LATEST NBM 25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE
GUIDANCE FOR SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS RANGE FROM 14-15:1 TO
17-18:1. WHILE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AMONGST GFS AND ECMWF
DIVERGE GREATLY ON QPF AMOUNTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEIR
ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE LARGELY ALIGNED WITH THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS
REMAINING ALONG THE OK BORDER, WHERE GENERALLY 0.25-0.40" IS
POSSIBLE. THESE AMOUNTS GRADUALLY DECREASE WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT
TOWARDS 0.10-0.20" ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. BOTTOM LINE,
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR AN IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN KS. STAY TUNED FOR FORECAST
REFINEMENTS OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 20-25 KT BY 19Z.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING TO 8-13 KT. LLWS
CONCERNS INCREASE AT CNU AFTER 00Z AS A 45 KT LLJ OVERSPREADS
MAINLY SOUTHEAST KS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT SHIFTING WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. AFTER SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY, WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE WEST AT 10-15 KT.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...BRF
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