717
FXUS63 KICT 211117
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
517 AM CST WED JAN 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE AREA TODAY
- HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AN ARCTIC OUTBREAK WITH EXTREME COLD
TEMPERATURES/DANGEROUS COLD WIND CHILLS TO IMPACT THE ENTIRE AREA
FRIDAY-SUNDAY ALONG WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AFFECTING MAINLY
SOUTHERN KANSAS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST WED JAN 21 2026
ANOTHER DAY OF MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS KANSAS TODAY
WITH COOLER NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY BEFORE THE BOTTOM
FALLS OUT THEREAFTER.
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE UPPER PATTERN SHOWING THE POLAR
VORTEX ROTATING FROM NORTHERN CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL FORCE A FRIGID ARCTIC AIRMASS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
THE ARCTIC AIR WILL BEGIN TO INVADE KANSAS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL BECOME WELL
ENTRENCHED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND COULD EXTEND INTO MONDAY
WITH MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER POSSIBLE RE-ENFORCING SURGE OF MORE
ARCTIC AIR ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODEL
PROBABILITIES REMAIN HIGH(60-80% CHANCES FOR SATURDAY DAYTIME
HIGHS OF 10F OR COLDER) AND (40-50% CHANCES OF 10F OR COLDER ON
SUNDAY). ANY FRESH SNOW COVER WOULD ONLY WORSEN THESE EXTREME
COLD TEMPERATURES WITH THIS KIND OF WEATHER SETUP. IN ADDITION,
DANGEROUS WINDS CHILLS OF -10F TO -20F ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR
DURING THE NIGHTTIME/MORNING PERIODS. AN EXTREME COLD WATCH MAY
BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND EVEN COLDER,
ESPECIALLY WITH ECMWF EFI INDEX NOW HAVING PRETTY MUCH ALL OF
IT'S ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PREDICTING EXTREME COLD EVENT LIKELY TO
OCCUR FOR THE WEEKEND.
AS FOR SNOWFALL, GFS MODEL HAS BEGUN TO TREND FURTHER NORTH WITH
IT'S SNOWFALL PROJECTIONS BECOMING MORE IN ALIGNMENT WITH
ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS. THE DRY LOW LAYERS LOOK TO DELAY THE SNOWFALL
FROM REACHING THE GROUND INITIALLY, BUT EVENTUALLY THE DEEPER LIFT
WILL BEGIN TO SATURATE THE VERTICAL COLUMN FROM THE MID-LEVELS
DOWNWARD. THE SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY LONG DURATION EVENT
BEGINNING SOMETIME FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WE HOISTED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR
SOUTHERN KANSAS(FRIDAY AFTERNOON-SATURDAY NIGHT) WITH THOSE
LOCATIONS HAVING THE POTENTIAL OF WITNESSING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS ON
THE EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES AND WHAT LOCATIONS WILL BE
IMPACTED BY THE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 515 AM CST WED JAN 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24HRS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND WESTERLY WINDS PREVAILING DURING THE DAY. A WIND SHIFT
WILL SINK SOUTHWARD TONIGHT CAUSING THE WINDS TO SWITCH AROUND
TO THE NORTH THEN AN EASTERLY DIRECTION.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR KSZ069-082-083-091>094-098>100.
DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...CDJ
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