627
FXUS63 KICT 220924
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
324 AM CST THU JAN 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LAST DAY OF MILD TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA TODAY BEFORE THE
WINTER STORM IMPACTS THE REGION
- HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC OUTBREAK WITH
DANGEROUS COLD WIND CHILLS AND IMPACTFUL SNOW TO AFFECT THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST THU JAN 22 2026
THERE IS STILL TIME TO PREPARE FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER STORM SYSTEM
WITH SOMEWHAT MILD TEMPERATURES TODAY BEFORE THE ARCTIC AIR AND SNOW
BEGINS AFFECTING THE REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CURRENT
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL POLAR VORTEX
DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CANADA TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS HAS STARTED THE ARCTIC AIR MARCH SOUTHWARD EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ARCTIC AIR TIMING REMAINS ON TRACK
WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS TO BEGIN INVADING KANSAS LATE TONIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF ARCTIC AIR SURGING SOUTHWARD AND GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL CAUSE WIND CHILLS TO DROP RAPIDLY OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
MORNING. THE MOST DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OF 10 TO 25 BELOW ZERO ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE ENTIRE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. COULD VERY WELL SEE THE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS
LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING. MODEL PROBABILITIES REMAIN VERY HIGH
AT 60-100% FOR WIND CHILL VALUES OF 10 BELOW ZERO OR COLDER
DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY MORNING PERIOD.
THE MODEL SIGNAL FOR SNOWFALL TIMING/AMOUNTS HAS NOT CHANGED A WHOLE
LOT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE OTHER THAN START TIME BEING A
LITTLE DELAYED DUE TO VERY DRY LOW LEVELS. THE STRONGER LIFT IS
STILL EXPECTED TO BEGIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. NBM MODEL GUIDANCE HAS REALLY RAMPED UP THE SNOW
TOTALS FOR CENTRAL KANSAS ESPECIALLY WITH VERY HIGH SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS, AND WITH SURROUNDING OFFICE COORDINATION WE
DECIDED TO EXPAND THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO INCLUDE ALL OF
CENTRAL KANSAS. THERE ARE A FEW CONCERNS WHERE SNOW WILL BE
BATTLING DRY LOW LEVELS MORE SO OVER CENTRAL KANSAS, AND THE
SNOW COULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF EARLIER BUT A LONG DURATION OF
LIFT IS NOT NEEDED GIVEN THE VERY HIGH SLRS FOR SNOW TO QUICKLY
ACCUMULATE TO 5" OR MORE. MEANWHILE LREF ENSEMBLE MODEL
PROBABILITIES OF 40-70% FOR 6" OR HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS CONTINUES
TO TARGET MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS GENERALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. THIS IS THE AREA THAT WILL SEE THE
STRONGEST LIFT AND LONGEST DURATION FOR SNOWFALL WHERE AMOUNTS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY
SEEING HIGHER THAN 8 INCHES.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER RE-ENFORCING SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
SPREADING SOUTHWARD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WHICH WILL
PROLONG THE DANGEROUS COLD WIND CHILLS. THE CHILLING EFFECTS OF NEW
FRESH SNOW COVER COULD VERY WELL HAMPER DAYTIME HIGHS FOR
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS WILL START TO SHIFT OVERNIGHT, BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY BY
LATE THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SPEEDS UNDER
10 KTS. AFTER 00Z FRIDAY, WINDS WILL START TO SHIFT TO
NORTHEASTERLY, BECOMING BREEZY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN
10-15 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...GC
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