417
FXUS63 KICT 222349
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
549 PM CST THU JAN 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES TONIGHT PLUNGING TEMPERATURES INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING; WIND CHILLS
AS COLD AS -20
- ACCUMULATING SNOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON; SEVERAL INCHES EXPECTED, HIGHEST
AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHERN KS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 202 PM CST THU JAN 22 2026
AS OF 130 PM THURSDAY AFTERNOON, LONGWAVE MIDLEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS ROTATING AROUND AN
AREA OF MIDLEVEL LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO WITH AN ATTENDANT
STRONG COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE UP OF MI THROUGH NORTHERN
SD. LATEST OBSERVATIONS BEHIND THE FRONT REVEAL A VERY COLD
AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE -10 TO -25 RANGE. THIS FRONTAL
ZONE WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE TONIGHT WITH FRIDAY
MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS
CENTRAL KS TO THE TEENS ACROSS SOUTHERN KS. FACTORING IN A
NORTHERN BREEZE UP TO 30 MPH WILL CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES AS
COLD AS -20 WITH THE COLDEST ACROSS CENTRAL KS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN STEADY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY FRIDAY. CONTINUED NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH WILL
CREATE WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO. THE POLAR PLUNGE CONTINUES INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGE FROM -5 TO +5 WITH THE
COLDEST ACROSS CENTRAL KS. FORTUNATELY, THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ALTHOUGH LIGHT WINDS WILL STILL CREATE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OF -10
TO -20 AREAWIDE BY SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING
THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS/LOW TEENS FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
FACTORING IN WIND SPEEDS UP TO 20 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE
SUB-ZERO WIND CHILL VALUES. THE BITTER COLD WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH LOWS NEAR/BELOW ZERO AND
HIGHS IN THE TEENS SUNDAY AND 20S MONDAY. AGAIN, THE NORTHERLY
WINDS UP TO 20 MPH WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS
-20. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
IN REGARDS TO THE UPCOMING SNOW STORM, THE ONLY NOTABLE CHANGE IS A
CONTINUED SLOWING OF THE MAIN WESTERN TROUGH. THIS IS LIKELY TO
RESULT IN A DELAYED ONSET BUT A LONGER DURATION OF SNOW INTO SUNDAY.
THE APPROACH OF A WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN A SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL
LONG, VEERING HODOGRAPHS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS SUGGESTING
INCREASING LOW AND MIDLEVEL WAA. AN IMPRESSIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER,
CHARACTERIZED OF DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ON THE ORDER OF 25-35 DEGREES
WILL DELAY SNOW ONSET TIMES FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THE
STRENGTHENING WAA WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL EXPANSION OF SNOWFALL
LATE FRIDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WETBULB SATURATION
OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH THE AREA BY LATE FRIDAY EVENING. FURTHERMORE,
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL STRENGTHEN A
MIDLEVEL JET STREAK FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE NORTHEAST US
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WAA WILL SUBSIDE INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS
SATURDAY AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A DECREASE IN SNOW COVERAGE INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CONTINUED JET DYNAMICS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER. LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE MAIN WESTERN TROUGH ADVANCES TOWARDS THE PLAINS WITH MIDLEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS AND A COUPLED JET EVOLVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL,
SOUTH-CENTRAL, AND SOUTHEAST KS. BY SUNDAY MORNING, THE BEST FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL BEGIN EXIT THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST, ENDING
SNOWFALL WITH ITS PROGRESSION.
NOW FOR THE MAIN QUESTION, HOW MUCH SNOWFALL CAN BE EXPECTED? LIKE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED WITH
QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS ON TRACK. THIS PARTICULAR SETUP IS QUITE UNIQUE
WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS. THAT BEING SAID, FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO REVEAL A DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER THROUGHOUT THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE (FROM 1-4KM) LATE FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS
COMBINED WITH THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. LATEST NBM 25TH TO 75TH
PERCENTILE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SNOW-TO-LIQUID NOW RANGING
FROM 17-20:1. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH REGARDS TO QPF
AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS. LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAIN LARGELY
UNCHANGED WITH AREAS ACROSS SOUTHERN KS RECEIVING THE GREATEST QPF.
NBM 25-75TH QPF SPREAD RANGE FROM 0.4-0.8" ACROSS SOUTHERN KS TO
ROUGHLY 0.3-0.6" ALONG I-70. THIS RESULTS IN SNOW TOTALS RANGING
FROM 5 TO 9" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY. LIKE PRIOR
FORECASTS, THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN KS. THE
CONSISTENCY AND ALIGNMENT OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS RESULTED IN
SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING FROM MIDDAY FRIDAY THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST THU JAN 22 2026
LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH AS ARCTIC AIR BEGINS
TO SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
PERSIST INTO FRIDAY WHILE CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE
DAY. DELAYED THE ONSET OF LIGHT SNOW GIVEN A VERY DRY PBL. SOME
WIND GUSTS INTO THE 30-35 KNOT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON FRIDAY TO NOON CST SUNDAY FOR
KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...MWM
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