192
FXUS63 KICT 230856
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
256 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM STILL SET TO IMPACT THE ENTIRE AREA
EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH HEAVY SNOW THE
MAIN HAZARD.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 256 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
CURRENTLY HAVE A DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO
WITH A MUCH SMALLER UPPER LOW JUST WEST OF NORTHERN BAJA. AT THE
SURFACE, ARCTIC AIR IS STARTING TO SPILL SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WITH TEMPS ACROSS MN AND SD
CURRENTLY IN THE -10 TO -25 DEGREE RANGE. THIS FRIGID AIRMASS
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THIS MORNING AS NORTHEAST WINDS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE.
WIND CHILL VALUES THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO FALL AS COLD
ADVECTION PERSISTS, PRODUCING WIND CHILLS IN THE -10 TO -15
DEGREE RANGE, ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL KS. THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS, WITH
FALLING TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL START TO
RAMP-UP, GENERALLY NEAR THE 800-700MB LEVELS WITH THIS LIFT
FIRST STARTING OVER WESTERN KS, AND WORKING ITS WAY EAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH SOME FAIRLY DRY AIR TO OVERCOME IN THE
LOW LEVELS, IT MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER TO START THAN ORIGINALLY
EXPECTED. SO ONE OF THE CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS
TO DELAY THE ONSET OF SNOW UNTIL AROUND 21Z FOR OUR WESTERN
FLANK WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA NOT SEEING MUCH UNTIL AFTER
00Z SAT. THIS FIRST ROUND OF SNOW FOR TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING
WILL BE MOSTLY RELATED TO PROLONGED ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARM
ADVECTION, WITH THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND BANDED SNOW POTENTIAL
STAYING TO OUR SOUTH. IN ADDITION, MOST OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KS WILL BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN IMPRESSIVE JET.
WITH SUCH A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE, MOST OF THE SATURATION WILL
BE IN THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH REGION, WHICH SHOULD HELP
SNOWFALL RATES TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.
BY 12Z SAT, THE UPPER LOW WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS BAJA WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
SOME MORE APPROACHING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THERE REMAINS SOME
MODEL AGREEMENT THAT WE SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN SNOWFALL FOR
SAT AFTERNOON AS THE STRONGER UPPER JET SLIDES SLIGHTLY EAST AS
DOES THE STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT. HOWEVER, THERE IS A STRONG
SIGNAL THAT SNOWFALL WILL PICK BACK UP SAT NIGHT AS THE UPPER
IMPULSE OVER THE GREAT BASIN APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
THE LOW THAT WAS OVER BAJA QUICKLY MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST TX. IN
ADDITION, ANOTHER STRONG UPPER JET WILL DEVELOP FROM NEBRASKA
INTO IOWA AND WILL ONCE AGAIN PLACE MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. SO WE ARE EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVIER SNOW SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING, WITH THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS ALONG AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE. THERE
IS ALSO SOME GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN SOME MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPING SAT NIGHT, FOR THE FLINT HILLS INTO
SOUTHEAST KS WHICH COULD ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES. AS FAR AS
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GO, DIDN'T MAKE MANY CHANGES AT ALL FROM WHAT
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD, WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS IN THE
6-10 INCH RANGE WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING THAT SOUTHEAST KS MAY
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE TO SEE A BIT MORE DUE TO BETTER BANDED
SNOW POTENTIAL.
ONLY FAR SOUTHEAST KS IS EXPECTED TO STILL BE SEEING SNOW BY 12Z
SUN WITH THE BETTER CHANCES QUICKLY PUSHING EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE MAY SEE A QUICK
BURST OF FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SUN NIGHT AS WHAT IS LEFT OF THE
UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH CENTRAL KS. THE DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS WILL CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SAT AND WILL WARM TO
JUST ABOVE ZERO DURING THE DAY SUN. HOWEVER, WITH LOW TEMPS MON
MORNING BOTTOMING OUT IN THE -5 TO -10 RANGE, WIND CHILLS AREA
WIDE WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL TO AROUND -15 DEGREES.
WE LOOK TO STAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN PLACE WITH HIGHS NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CST THU JAN 22 2026
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR
CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH MVFR
CIGS LIKELY AS WE MOVE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 22-23Z EXPANDING IN COVERAGE ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR AND IFR WILL BE LIKELY
AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ON
FRIDAY.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON CST
MONDAY FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON CST SUNDAY FOR
KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...MWM
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