095
FXUS63 KICT 232023
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
223 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AREA-WIDE BY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT;
ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SNOWFALL LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS
- ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE AREA WITH WIND CHILL VALUES AS
COLD AS 25 BELOW ZERO
- MODERATING TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THE WELL-ADVERTISED ARCTIC AIRMASS HAS
OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM NEAR ZERO
ACROSS CENTRAL KS TO THE TEENS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS. FACTORING IN A
STOUT NORTHEAST BREEZE UP TO 35 MPH IS YIELDING WIND CHILL VALUES AS
COLD AS -20. DESPITE THIS STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD-AIR-ADVECTION,
MIDLEVEL WARM-AIR-ADVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS REVEALS
AN AXIS OF 850-700MB WAA FROM SOUTHWEST KS THROUGH CENTRAL KS. THE
DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WAS QUICKLY SATURATED ACROSS CENTRAL BY MID TO
LATE MORNING WITH SNOW FALLING EVER SINCE. THIS WAA AXIS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING; CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE
MODEST TO STRONG MIDLEVEL WAA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO THE
DAYTIME HOURS OF SATURDAY WITH SNOWFALL LIKELY TO DECREASE IN
COVERAGE. IN REGARDS TO QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY,
HREF AND NBM SPREADS REMAIN QUITE SMALL WITH 25TH PERCENTILE QPF
VALUES RANGING FROM 0.3-0.4" AREAWIDE AND 75TH PERCENTILE
VALUES RANGING FROM 0.4-0.5". COMBINING THESE QPF AMOUNTS WITH
IMPRESSIVE SLRS OF 16-19:1 CREATES SNOW TOTALS THROUGH MIDDAY
SATURDAY OF 4-6". ONE OF THE CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGES
IS A SHIFT OF THE MAIN MIDLEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. LATEST DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THE TROUGH AXIS, CURRENTLY OFF THE BAJA COAST WILL DIG SLIGHTLY
FURTHER SOUTH AND EJECT ALONG I-44. THIS SHIFTS THE NEXT AXIS OF
SNOWFALL FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH SOUTHEAST KS STANDING THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. THERE COULD CERTAINLY BE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
FOR AREAS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KS WITH MIDLEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS AND A COUPLED JET OVERSPREADING THE REGION. THE
MAIN QUESTION WILL BE AS LOW AND MIDLEVEL CAA INCREASES, WILL
DRY AIR WIN OUT AND LIMIT ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES SUNDAY MORNING, SNOW WILL COME TO END
AREAWIDE. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PROGRESSES FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. AS FAR AS TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS GO, THE ENTIRE AREA IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 5
TO 10 INCHES WITH MOST AREAS IN THE 5-8". AREAS OF SOUTHEAST KS
COULD APPROACH THE 10" MARK IF THE SECOND ROUND OF SNOWFALL
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING INCLUDES ANY BANDING.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO, THE POLAR PLUNGE CONTINUES TONIGHT AS
OVERNIGHT LOWS DIP BELOW ZERO FOR MOST LOCATIONS. FORTUNATELY, THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ALTHOUGH LIGHT WINDS WILL STILL CREATE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS -
15 TO -25 AREAWIDE BY SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING THE
POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. FACTORING IN WIND SPEEDS
UP TO 20 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE SUB-ZERO WIND CHILL VALUES. THE
BITTER COLD WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH LOWS
NEAR/BELOW ZERO AND HIGHS IN THE TEENS SUNDAY AND 20S MONDAY. AGAIN,
THE NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 20 MPH WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS -
25. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE TOWARDS MIDWEEK AS MIDLEVEL
RIDGING APPROACHES THE PLAINS. HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
RETURN TO THE 30S/NEAR 40 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
SNOW IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THIS SNOW TO
OVERSPREAD ALL OF CENTRAL, SOUTH CENTRAL, AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SNOWFALL PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WHICH IS WHEN
VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO AROUND A MILE OR LESS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH FAIRLY LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS
EXPECTED BY LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A LULL IN THE
HEAVIER SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE STATE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...WI
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