500
FXUS63 KICT 241735
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1135 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED ALONG WITH
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS THROUGH MON MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW ABOUT TO MOVE
OVER NORTHERN BAJA WITH SOME ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY SINKING
SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. FURTHER NORTH, SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS
MOVING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. AT THE
SURFACE, ARCTIC FRONT HAS PUSHED ALL THE WAY DOWN TO SOUTH TX
WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER NORTHERN IA/SOUTHERN MN.
FOR THIS MORNING, THE BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT LOOKS TO SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST. HOWEVER, WE WILL MAINTAIN SOME MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS
SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE WESTERN CONUS MID/UPPER IMPULSE. FEEL THAT
THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW IN PLACE AREA WIDE
TODAY WITH A FEW POCKETS OF TRANSIENT MODERATE SNOW.
BY 00Z SUN, THE ENERGY OVER BAJA WILL BE APPROACHING SOUTHWEST
TX WITH A SECONDARY IMPULSE DIGGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
AT THE SAME TIME, MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN A STRONG JET
DEVELOPING EARLY THIS EVENING FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH IA,
WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
THIS JET. STILL LOOKING FOR AN INCREASE IN PRECIP EARLY THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND AS ISENTROPIC LIFT
RAMPS BACK UP, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST KS. THERE LOOKS TO BE A
SHARP BACK EDGE TO THE PRECIP TONIGHT AND WHERE THIS SETS-UP
WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON SNOW TOTALS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP WITH
THE THINKING THAT IT WILL SETUP ALONG THE KS TURNPIKE WITH AREAS
SOUTHEAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE STAYING IN THE BETTER LIFT FOR A
LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. IN ADDITION, MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
IN SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS MOVING THROUGH, WHICH
MAY RESULT IN A MORE INTENSE BAND THIS EVENING. SO FOR TONIGHT,
THE FLINT HILL AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST KS WILL SEE THE HIGHER
SNOW TOTALS. MEANWHILE, CENTRAL KS IS NOT EXPECTED TO SEE MUCH
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TONIGHT. SNOWFALL IS ALSO EXPECTED TO EXIT
THE FORECAST AREA QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT, AND BY 12Z
SUN, ONLY EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS WILL STILL BE SEEING PRECIP.
BASED ON WHAT HAS OCCURRED SO FAR, IT APPEARS STORM TOTAL SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN WHAT WE WERE RUNNING WITH AT THIS TIME
YESTERDAY, WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE 3-8 INCH RANGE.
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED AS FAR AS TEMPS GO, WITH WIDESPREAD -10 TO
-20 WIND CHILLS FOR TODAY THROUGH MON MORNING.
THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN A VORT LOBE SINKING SOUTH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES FOR SUN EVENING AND WILL
PROVIDE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOWFALL ACROSS WESTERN KS WITH SOME
OF THIS POTENTIALLY MAKING IT INTO CENTRAL KS FOR SUN NIGHT. WE
LOOK TO STAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK
WITH ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN/MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR BY
MID WEEK. SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL
BE HIGHER THAN WE ARE SEEING NOW, THEY WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
AREAS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. PREDOMINATE VSBY WILL BE IN THE
2-6SM RANGE WITH LOWER VSBY LIKELY WITHIN ANY BANDED SNOWFALL.
CIGS MAY LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR DURING ANY PERIODS OF HEAVIER
SNOWFALL. THIS POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE CONFINED TO
SLN/HUT/ICT/CNU. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...BRF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page