591
FXUS63 KICT 270457
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1057 PM CST MON JAN 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ALL WEEK, WITH A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL COOL-DOWN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW THIS WILL PAN OUT DUE TO IT BEING
PRODUCED BY SUCH A SUBTLE WAVE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 108 PM CST MON JAN 26 2026
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 500 MB RAP ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
SHOWS A DEEP, POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN CONUS WITH WEAK UPPER RIDING OVER THE PACIFIC COASTLINE. AT THE
SURFACE, ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION, AND IT IS BEING
REINFORCED BY WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER ACROSS THE AREA.
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN, A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION WILL SUPPORT LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. MODEST LOW-LEVEL CAA ALONG WITH THE EXISTING SNOW PACK WILL SUPPORT
HIGHS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S, WHICH IS GENERALLY LOWER
THAN THE CURRENT RUN OF THE NBM. SURFACE WINDS FLIP BACK AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT A SLIGHT MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE NBM IS LIKELY A BIT TOO WARM
GIVEN THE EXISTING SNOW PACK THAT WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA.
THE EURO SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SNOW PACK AND ITS
POTENTIAL IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF
KANSAS. IT’S POSSIBLE MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, MOST LIKELY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE, WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ON
WEDNESDAY DESPITE FAIRLY DECENT LOW-LEVEL WAA.
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN QUITE PERSISTENT THIS WEEK, AND SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW SUPPORTING A COUPLE OF
COLD FRONT PASSAGES AND A LOW CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SNOW, MAINLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS, LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST FRONT
ARRIVES ON THURSDAY, LIKELY KNOCKING TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES AND
KEEPING AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM RISING ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON FRIDAY WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS ARCTIC AIR SPILLS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. WHILE IT’S STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY, CURRENT
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST LOWS SATURDAY MORNING
COULD BE IN NEAR RECORD TERRITORY. ADDITIONALLY, THERE’S A WEAK SIGNAL LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES DEVELOPING ON FRIDAY AS A RESULT OF MID-LEVEL WAA ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. SOME GLOBAL ENSEMBLES SHOW AN OUTSIDE PROBABILITY SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY COULD OCCUR AS FAR EAST AS THE I-135 CORRIDOR; HOWEVER,
LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CST MON JAN 26 2026
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY OVERNIGHT, FALLING BELOW
10 KNOTS BY 12Z. THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED MUCH
OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON, THEN TURN SOUTHWESTERLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION... JC/TOP
AVIATION...AMD
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