114
FXUS63 KICT 250506
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1106 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
A COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, KNOCKING
TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING,
WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ANTICIPATED. RAIN
CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING,
ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN KS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
CURRENTLY HAVE BROAD UPPER RIDGING FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST, WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE PLAINS.
AT THE SURFACE, LEE TROUGHING IS GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING ACROSS
EASTERN CO INTO WESTERN KS.
NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE THROUGH WED, WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT REMAINING IN PLACE. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN A
WEAK UPPER IMPULSE SLIDING DOWN IN THE FLOW WED EVENING. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG WITH
A CHANCE FOR SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES WED NIGHT, WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MOST LOCATIONS ARE LOOKING AT LESS THAN A
TENTH INCH OF RAINFALL. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR TO
FILTER-IN BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT, WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S
FOR THURSDAY.
WE WILL REMAIN IN STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR FRIDAY WITH
GOOD DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS PUSHING HIGHS INTO THE 70S REGION
WIDE. GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN CONSISTENT IN PUSHING A STRONG COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, KNOCKING HIGHS
BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S FOR SUNDAY. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO FOR
SUNDAY, CURRENTLY HAVE QUITE A BIT OF MODEL SPREAD, SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. CURRENTLY HAVE A SLIGHT LEAN TO
THE COOLER SOLUTIONS GIVEN THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE AIRMASS.
WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE SHALLOW COLD AIR MAY ALSO RESULT IN
SOME RAIN SHOWERS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN KS. COOLER AIRMASS LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE INTO
MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
GENERALLY, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD IMPACT AREAS ALONG AND NORTHEAST
OF A KSLN-KCNU LINE LATE TONIGHT.
WINDS ARE QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO A WEAK COLD
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS KANSAS WHILE WIND SPEEDS ARE REMAINING
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS. THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WINDS SHOULD BECOME
MORE UNIFORM OUT OF THE SOUTH AS SPEEDS STAY AROUND 10 KNOTS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SAG IT'S WAY INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
BRINGING ANOTHER NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT BEHIND IT ALONG WITH LOW
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE
ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A KSLN-KCNU LINE, BUT A FEW COULD SNEAK
FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT. LITTLE TO NO IMPACT TO TAF
SITES ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS ACTIVITY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S AREA
WIDE AND WITH DRY LOW LEVELS, RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO
AROUND 20%. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG, THE LOW
RH'S WILL ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER INTO THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY.
WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...RBL
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