731
FXUS63 KICT 251729
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1129 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
- LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT; RAIN AMOUNTS LESS
THAN 0.10"
- A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY USHERS IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 126 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
AS OF 115 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING, NORTHWEST MIDLEVEL FLOW REMAINS
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND RIDGING
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US. A PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
STREAM ACROSS THE PLAINS AS MIDLEVEL CLOUD COVER. THIS CLOUD COVER
HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES MILD IN THE 30S AND 40S THUS FAR. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTHERN KS WILL SLIDE EAST LATER TODAY WITH A
WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN IN IT'S WAKE, RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD
IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.
THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES LATE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT AS A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX
TRANSLATES ACROSS THE STATE. THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL EXTEND
FROM PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHEAST KS AS THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SPEED MAX PROGRESSES OVERHEAD.
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS ALIGNED WITH PRIOR FORECASTS AND
OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS
RECEIVING A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT BEST. AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY BEFORE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS RETURN FOR FRIDAY, RETURNING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 60S AND 70S. THE MIDLEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
QUASI-ZONAL BY WEEKS-END. MID TO LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK ACROSS THE AREA
IN THE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL RETURN TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL (NEAR 50 DEGREES).
THIS FRONTAL ZONE MAY STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN KS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD.
LARGELY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS BEFORE A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THIS BOUNDARY
WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE 12-15 KT RANGE AND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS,
ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL, THOUGH IMPACTS
SHOULD BE MINIMAL. AS SUCH, DECIDED TO INTRODUCE VCSH AT RSL/SLN/CNU
WHERE CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS HIGHEST AT THIS TIME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 126 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER MAY RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FLINT
HILLS AS WARM TEMPERATURES (70S) OVERLAP SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS UP
TO 20 MPH.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...JWK
FIRE WEATHER...BRF
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