619
FXUS63 KICT 252328
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
528 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE
MIDNIGHT, ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF KANSAS.
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH A RETURN
TO MOSTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EXTENDING THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- ELEVATED GRASSFIRE DANGER POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
- WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
- OFF-AND-ON UNSETTLED PATTERN NEXT WEEK, WITH PERIODIC RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 218 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
TEMPERATURES:
THROUGH SATURDAY...WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY, DUE TO ABOVE AVERAGE HEIGHTS/THICKNESS
AND PERSISTENT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. A COLD FRONT
WILL PROGRESS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT, BUT
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY SHOULD STILL BE FAIRLY MILD AND SIMILAR TO
TODAY SINCE THE AIRMASS WILL BE MOSTLY PACIFIC IN ORIGIN.
LATE SATURDAY--EARLY NEXT WEEK...A DIGGING CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH AMERICAN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH
A LIKELY RETURN TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. FOR
NOW THE NBM JUST TRENDED TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER, BUT IF MODEL
TRENDS CONTINUE WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF LATER NBM RUNS COME IN
MUCH COOLER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
30S-40S POSSIBLE. THESE SHALLOW COLD AIRMASSES TEND TO COME IN
FASTER AND COLDER THAN ADVERTISED. AVERAGE HIGHS THIS TIME OF
YEAR ARE MOSTLY IN THE 50S.
MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...AN EVENTUAL WARM-UP LOOKS PROBABLE AS WE
HEAD INTO MID-LATE NEXT WEEK, AS WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING
INCREASES HEIGHTS/THICKNESS AND LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
MID-AMERICA.
PRECIPITATION:
THIS EVENING...A FLEET-FOOTED LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE ALONG
WITH AN ASSOCIATED DEEP COLD FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION. THINKING ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD OVER MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF KANSAS. ADDITIONALLY, GIVEN RATHER
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DECENT FRONTAL FORCING,
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE 8-9PM
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 56. SEVERE WEATHER ABSOLUTELY IS NOT EXPECTED,
ALTHOUGH A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER MAY SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. THINKING MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT SOUTHEAST KANSAS
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SATURDAY NIGHT--MONDAY MORNING...THIS PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED FOR A POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION, AS A SHALLOW
COLD AIRMASS OOZES IN FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST, WITH LOW-
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACTING ON THE DEEP FRONTAL ZONE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN A FAIRLY STOUT WARM NOSE ALOFT
ATOP THE SHALLOW CHILLY AIRMASS, THE SYNOPTIC SETUP WOULD FAVOR
MAINLY SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE COLD
ENOUGH. THERE STILL REMAINS LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THIS
PERIOD WITH MANY DIFFERENT FORECAST OUTCOMES POSSIBLE. STAY
TUNED AS WE REFINE FORECAST DETAILS IN THE COMING DAYS.
NEXT WEEK...AN OFF-AND-ON ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO
CONTINUE NEXT WEEK, AND POSSIBLE EVEN INTO NEXT WEEKEND, AS
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS DIGS A TRAIN OF DEEP UPPER
TROUGHS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS AND EVENTUALLY INTO MID-AMERICA.
WARMING TEMPERATURES SHOULD KEEP THESE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALL
LIQUID. INCREASING LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS
IN CONCERT WITH THE PERIODIC STRONG FORCING MAY SUPPORT
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL AMOUNTS, WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY EVEN
SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT TIMES. STAY TUNED AS WE
REFINE FORECAST DETAILS IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 524 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY THIS EVENING OVER CENTRAL KS WHILE
ARRIVING BY MID EVENING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS OR PERHAPS HIGHER UNDER A BRIEF SHOWER OR ISOLATED STORMS
IN PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH
SOUTHWARD EXTENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BUT THE WIND
SHIFT WILL STILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
AND LATER TONIGHT IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS. VCSH WAS MAINTAINED IN
THE KRSL, KGBD AND KSLN TAF FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS EVENING.
VFR AND RELATIVELY LIGHT NORTHWEST ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 218 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
VERY HIGH GRASSFIRE DANGER MAY RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE REGION, AS WARM TEMPERATURES (70S) AND HUMIDITY IN THE 20S
PERCENT OVERLAP WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS UP TO 20 MPH. WE DO
NOT THINK FIRE DANGER WILL BE RED FLAG/CRITICAL, ALTHOUGH VERY
HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS POSSIBLE.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...MWM
FIRE WEATHER...ADK/BRF
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