409
FXUS63 KICT 261739
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1139 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY; STRONG
COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK; POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD, HEAVY RAIN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 146 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
AS OF 115 AM THURSDAY MORNING, NORTHWEST MIDLEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO
RESIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN US. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS. AS THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSED CENTRAL
AND EASTERN KS, LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES WERE OBSERVED BUT ONLY
A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF ACCUMULATION WERE NOTED. SURFACE
RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL YIELD PREDOMINATELY LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
NORTHWEST MIDLEVEL FLOW REMAIN ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO EJECT FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AN ASSOCIATED
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY
BEFORE STALLING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OK. INCREASING WAA
OVERTOP OF THIS COLD, NEAR-SURFACE AIRMASS SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IN
FACT, GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE ALIGNED WITH A 7-8 C/KM
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA BY
SUNDAY MORNING AND MAY RESULT IN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
BROAD WAA PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THAT PERIOD. THE BIGGEST
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS TIED TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. LATEST
NBM 25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILES REMAIN QUITE LARGE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. NBM 25TH PERCENTILE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
SUNDAY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS CENTRAL KS TO THE MID 30S
ACROSS EAST- CENTRAL KS TO NEAR 40 ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS. THE
75TH PERCENTILE VALUES RANGE FROM NEAR 40 ACROSS CENTRAL KS TO
NEAR 50 ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS. GIVEN THESE LARGE
SPREADS IN TEMPERATURE AND SUNDAY BEING 4 DAYS AWAY, IT REMAINS
TOUGH TO RESOLVE WHERE, IF ANY, WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR.
BOTTOM-LINE, BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE
TRENDING TOWARDS COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAY BE INCREASING.
TRANSITIONING INTO NEXT WEEK, THE MIDLEVEL PATTERN WILL
TRANSITION TO QUASI-ZONAL AHEAD OF A WESTERN CONUS TROUGH.
SUBTLE PERTURBATIONS AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AND INCREASING LOW
AND MIDLEVEL WAA WILL MAINTAIN PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED MIDLEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
EJECT INTO THE PLAINS IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME AND MAY
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL, POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES. STAY
TUNED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA WHICH
WILL ALLOW LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, THEN EVENTUALLY COME AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST BY FRI MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT CLEAR
SKIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 146 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
A BRIEF PERIOD OF VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS. EXTREME FIRE DANGER OR RED
FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. A PATTERN CHANGE TOWARDS
THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. SHOULD THIS
EVOLVE, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE TABLED, AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...RBL
FIRE WEATHER...BRF
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