237
FXUS63 KICT 262336
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
536 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE
FLINT HILLS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY BRINGING
COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE CHANCES FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
- ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN CHANCES LIKELY MID WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN US WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. A
SURFACE LOW IS POSITIONED OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AREA WITH
SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS. IN OUR AREA,
RELATIVELY LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.
UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS KEEPING THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME OVER OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.
LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS AND MIXING WILL AID IN WARMER TEMPERATURES
ON FRIDAY. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 70S AREAWIDE, WHICH IS 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE FEBRUARY. THESE WARMER CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S IN
CENTRAL KS TO THE MID 70S IN SOUTHERN KS.
ON LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
ONTARIO/THE GREAT LAKES AREA WHICH WILL PUSH A DEEP SURFACE LOW
THROUGH ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT WILL DRAPE DOWN FROM THIS LOW AND PUSH
THROUGH OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WAA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ABOVE THIS COLDER AIR MASS WITH
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM, MAKING AN ISOLATED SHOWER
POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN KS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER ON SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WAA WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
AIDING IN ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE STILL REMAINS A LARGE SPREAD FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WITH THE ECMWF AND GDPS NOTABLY WARMER THAN THE GFS AND NAM.
ADDITIONALLY, THE NBM 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILES FOR SURFACE
TEMPERATURE HAVE A TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE OF 10-15 DEGREES FROM LATE
SUNDAY MORNING TO SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO TREND TOWARDS COLDER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. GIVEN THE WAA
BETWEEN 850-700 MB AND COLDER TEMPERATURES, POSSIBLE CHANCES FOR
WINTRY PRECIP ARE INCREASING ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL KS WHERE COLDER
TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY. TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED, STAY TUNED.
AS WE MOVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL
WITH EMBEDDED RIPPLES AHEAD OF THE DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THESE
RIPPLES COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL WAA MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL RAIN
CHANCES MONDAY TO TUESDAY. ON TUESDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHICH WILL INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES AREAWIDE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PRECIP WILL MOST LIKELY BE ALL RAIN
GIVEN THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL. PWATS ARE GENERALLY GREATER THAN 0.75" WITH THE GFS
SHOWING UP TO 1.2" IN EASTERN KS, WHICH IS WELL-ABOVE THE MAXIMUM
PWATS FOR EASTERN KS THIS TIME OF YEAR AND COULD LEAD TO EFFICIENT
RAINFALL RATES. STAY TUNED AS THIS FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE
REFINED.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE
10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHILE VFR
PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND
INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL LEAD TO VERY HIGH GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER FOR A BRIEF PERIOD ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS
THE FLINT HILLS. CRITICAL FIRE DANGER OR RED FLAG CONDITIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED. GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
AFTER SATURDAY AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...MWM
FIRE WEATHER...GC
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