600
FXUS63 KICT 270957
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
357 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLINT
HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MIDDAY.
WINTRY MIX AND/OR FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG I-70 SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
- CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK. POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING, A BROAD, DEEP LAYER TOUGH WAS PRESENT OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS, AND A STOUT UPPER RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS KANSAS IS
SLOWLY WASHING OUT, AND MORE UNIFORM WESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE LATER TODAY. THIS WILL PROMOTE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH
WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. WHILE WARM, THIS
AFTERNOON'S HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES SHY OF THE RECORD HIGHS FOR
TODAY (UPPER 70S TO MID 80S). ADDITIONALLY, THESE WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT A BRIEF WINDOW OF VERY HIGH GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLINT HILLS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. LATE TODAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING, A COUPLE OF
QUICK- MOVING TROUGHS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN
CONUS WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG SURFACE CYCLONE
ACROSS MANITOBA AND ONTARIO ALONG WITH A FAIRLY STOUT COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE COLDER AIR
WILL LIKELY STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY
ALLOWING AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, A STRONG SURFACE
RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN CONUS AND WILL
AID IN USHERING IN COOLER AIR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IF
FORCING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IS SUFFICIENT, A COUPLE OF
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, BUT CHANCES ARE UNDER 15% FOR NOW.
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY, CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL CAA IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WHILE WAA WILL RAMP UP ON TOP OF THIS SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS.
ADDITIONALLY, AN APPROACHING SUBTLE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS,
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-135 CORRIDOR. WHILE TRENDS HAVE BEEN
WARMER, BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT PRECIPITATION TYPE. THAT BEING SAID, MOST MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE WARM NOSE WILL BE WELL-ABOVE FREEZING.
THEREFORE, SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN ARE THE MOST FAVORED PRECIPITATION
TYPES AT THIS TIME. AGAIN, THIS IS ASSUMING SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
BELOW FREEZING WHICH IS NOT A GUARANTEE BASED ON HOW GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED SO FAR. DUE TO THESE UNCERTAINTIES, EXACT IMPACTS ARE
CURRENTLY DIFFICULT TO PARSE OUT FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. MEANWHILE, ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS, PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
WILL LIKELY BE JUST A COLD RAIN.
A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF MONDAY
WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS REMAINING AT OR BELOW 25%. HOWEVER,
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL STEADILY INCREASE AND PERSIST
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS AN ACTIVE PATTERN
SETTLES IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MID-RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY SIGNALED THAT THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE EARLY TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
WHILE GUIDANCE DOESN'T EXPLICITLY SUGGEST EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AT THIS
TIME, PWATS WELL OVER AN INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS (WHICH IS
TOWARDS THE UPPER-END OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) SUGGEST
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO OCCUR
LOOK TO BE TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY, MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
I-135. DESPITE THE MODEST CONCERNS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING, THIS WILL LIKELY BE A WELCOME RAINFALL EVENT AS DROUGHT
CONDITIONS HAVE STARTED TO ENCROACH ON THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF KANSAS. STAY TUNED TO THE FORECAST FOR ADDITIONAL
UPDATES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, THEN
WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. AFTER 00Z, LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD RESUME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND
INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL LEAD TO VERY HIGH GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER FOR A BRIEF PERIOD ON THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS
THE FLINT HILLS. CRITICAL FIRE DANGER OR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL DECREASE AFTER
SATURDAY AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...GC/JC
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