547
FXUS63 KICT 272337
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
537 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH COLDER READINGS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING WITH A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL KS SUNDAY NIGHT
TO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
- ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WORK WEEK WITH THE BEST CHANCES LIKELY TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD UPPER
TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MANITOBA MOVING INTO
ONTARIO. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
A SURFACE LOW HAS MOVED INTO ONTARIO WITH SURFACE TROUGHING
EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. IN OUR AREA, BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S HAVE LED TO VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS, WHICH WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS WINDS WEAKEN TOWARDS SUNSET.
UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS KEEPING THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME OVER OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER ONTARIO WILL DEEPEN INTO SATURDAY, PUSHING A
DEEP SURFACE LOW INTO QUEBEC. A COLD FRONT WILL DRAPE DOWN FROM THIS
LOW THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO
NORTHEASTERN KS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RISE INTO THE 70S BEFORE THE
COLD FRONT AND COLDER AIR PUSH FARTHER SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING SOME MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST KS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH WAA MAY RESULT IN A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS (UNDER 15% CHANCE) SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO EVENING. LOW-LEVEL
WAA WILL LIKELY INCREASE ON SUNDAY AIDING IN ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THERE
IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WITH
THE LARGEST SPREAD BEING IN CENTRAL KS. THE GFS REMAINS TO BE THE
COLDEST SOLUTION WITH HIGHS NEAR FREEZING IN CENTRAL KS WHILE OTHER
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S. TEMPERATURES FOR
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS HAVE BETTER CONFIDENCE IN STAYING IN
THE 40S. GIVEN THE WARM NOSE WELL-ABOVE FREEZING AND POTENTIAL
SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING, IT IS POSSIBLE FOR A WINTRY MIX
TO DEVELOP MAINLY IN CENTRAL KS NEAR I-70 ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO
EVENING. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH ON PRECIP TYPE, BUT SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN LOOK MOST LIKELY FOR CENTRAL KS. HOWEVER, FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KS, RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE SAME TIMEFRAME.
TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOW AT THIS TIME WITH VERY LITTLE
ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED IN CENTRAL KS. THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
START SHIFTING EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, REDUCING PRECIP CHANCES AS WE
MOVE TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. TRENDS WITH THIS FORECAST WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED, STAY TUNED!
AS WE MOVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL
WITH EMBEDDED RIPPLES AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THESE
RIPPLES COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL WAA MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL RAIN
CHANCES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON TO MONDAY NIGHT. AN ACTIVE PATTERN
IS FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH A FEW SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PWATS WILL RISE WELL-ABOVE NORMAL
TO CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH VALUES ABOVE 1" IN
EASTERN KS MAKING HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCES LOOK
TO BE FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THOUGH THERE ARE
DISCREPANCIES WITH ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES ON TIMING OF RAINFALL.
STAY TUNED AS THIS FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 526 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24HRS ACROSS THE REGION.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SWITCH TO THE NORTH AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING. ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO
THE NORTHWEST/WEST WITH INCREASING SPEEDS OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY, AND INCREASED WESTERLY WINDS WILL LEAD TO VERY HIGH
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST KS. CRITICAL FIRE DANGER OR
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE AFTER SATURDAY AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...CDJ
FIRE WEATHER...GC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page