692
FXUS63 KICT 280956
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
356 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
AND CENTRAL KANSAS DUE TO WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY MIDDAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG I-70 SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
- CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK. POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN KANSAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING, WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CONUS, AND
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. AT
THE SURFACE, A POWERFUL MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE IS LOCATED OVER
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHED OUT ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A POTENT SURFACE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
HELPING TO PUSH A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER, PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THIS
AIRMASS, ANOTHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD
HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW LOCATIONS
REACHING 80 DEGREES CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY
CONDITIONS BOTH AHEAD OF, AND BEHIND, THE COLD FRONT WILL
SUPPORT MARGINAL VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. LASTLY, A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE WILL PRIMARILY BE SUPPORTED
BY LIFT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT; HOWEVER, STOUT CAPPING SHOULD
KEEP COVERAGE LOW. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING REMAIN BELOW 20%.
AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO SURGE
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS LOW-LEVEL
CAA IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN QUITE PERSISTENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
SUNDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO MIDNIGHT HIGHS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
ADDITIONALLY, INCREASING MID-LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
ARRIVING ON SCENE WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. UNFORTUNATELY, THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL KANSAS. HOWEVER,
CURRENTLY IT APPEARS AS THOUGH LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY INITIALLY
START AS RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY EVENING. MINUTE DETAILS REGARDING HOW WARM
THE WARM NOSE IS, AND HOW COLD THE SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS GETS
WILL DETERMINE THE EXACT PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS. ADDITIONALLY, GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POSSIBILITY SOME OF
THIS PRECIPITATION COULD BE DRIZZLE, ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS ALSO SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT
THE SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION, AND A
SCENARIO WHERE VERY FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS SEE NO
PRECIPITATION AT ALL SUNDAY AND MONDAY IS CERTAINLY A
POSSIBILITY. THE ONE ASPECT OF THE FORECAST THAT HAS SEEN AN
INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS IS THAT
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR SHOULD FALL BELOW FREEZING, PERHAPS EVEN INTO THE UPPER
20S. PULLING THIS ALL TOGETHER, ITS NO MYSTERY AS TO WHY
POTENTIAL IMPACTS ARE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AT THIS
TIME. SHOULD ALL OF THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION FALL AS FREEZING
RAIN OR DRIZZLE, THE POSSIBILITY FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS INCREASES
QUITE A BIT. DESPITE WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES DUE TO NEAR RECORD
WARMTH THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, ICY SPOTS ON BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES WOULD BE A CONCERN SHOULD THIS SCENARIO PLAY OUT.
HOWEVER, IF MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLS AS SLEET, IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL WOULD LIKELY BE MUCH MORE MINOR. FOR OTHER AREAS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA (SOUTH-CENTRAL & SOUTHEAST KANSAS), ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL MOST LIKELY BE JUST RAIN. HOWEVER,
QPF ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE,
LIKELY REMAINING BELOW 0.10".
COVERAGE IN PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED, AND WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO WARM WELL-ABOVE
FREEZING, ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL BE ALL RAIN. HOWEVER,
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL STEADILY INCREASE AND PERSIST
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS AN ACTIVE PATTERN
SETTLES IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MID-RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY SIGNALED THAT THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING ON FRIDAY AND HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE GUIDANCE DOESN'T EXPLICITLY SUGGEST
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AT THIS TIME, PWATS WELL OVER AN INCH ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS (WHICH IS TOWARDS THE UPPER-END OF CLIMATOLOGY
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) SUGGEST HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE MODEST CONCERNS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
LOCALIZED FLOODING, THIS WILL LIKELY BE A WELCOME RAINFALL EVENT
AS DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE STARTED TO ENCROACH ON THE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS. STAY TUNED TO THE FORECAST FOR
ADDITIONAL UPDATES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24HRS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS WITH ONLY SOME THIN HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE THE WINDS TO INCREASE A LITTLE BIT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND BEHIND THE FRONT
OVER CENTRAL KANSAS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO MARGINAL VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORECAST BEGINNING ON SUNDAY, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE
DAMPENED OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...CDJ
FIRE WEATHER...JC
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