913
FXUS63 KICT 282322
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
522 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH COOLER AIR TO MOVE-IN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ALONG WITH
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES. A WINTER MIX POSSIBLE SUNDAY ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-70 WITH SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT.
- STORMS CHANCES INCREASING FOR SUN MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SOME SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE.
- ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WORK WEEK WITH THE BEST CHANCES LIKELY TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY
AND FRIDAY TO SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
CURRENTLY HAVE A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM NEAR MCI TO JUST SOUTH
OF I-70 WITH A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH GENERALLY ALONG THE KS TURNPIKE.
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH BROAD
TROUGHING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH TONIGHT AND WILL BE THROUGH
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z SUN. AS FAR AS THE 12Z MODELS GO
WITH TEMPS, THE NAM IS QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN GFS/ECMWF/HRRR AND
DECIDED NOT GO THAT COLD AT THIS TIME. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
SHOWERS AND ISO STORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE SUN MORNING AS 850-700MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT QUICKLY RAMPS UP. IN ADDITION, WE SHOULD HAVE
AROUND 500J/KG OF MUCAPE TO WORK WITH WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
STORMS DEVELOPING BY THE LATE MORNING AND WITH SOME GOOD DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR IN PLACE, IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE COULD SEE SOME HAIL
UP TO DIME OR NICKEL SIZE WITH THIS ACTIVITY, OR EVEN SOME
THUNDERSLEET WHERE IT'S COLD ENOUGH OVER CENTRAL KS. WITH TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING WHEN THE PRECIP STARTS SUNDAY, NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ICE ACCUMULATION, WITH THE EXCEPTION POTENTIALLY BEING A
FEW BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST LATE SUN AFTERNOON, PUSHING THE BETTER PRECIP
CHANCES EAST FOR SUN EVENING.
EVEN THOUGH BETTER SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT EAST SUN EVENING,
FEEL THAT DRIZZLE WILL DEVELOP SUN NIGHT AS MODELS AGREE ON LOW
LEVEL SATURATION REMAINING BEHIND. IN ADDITION, THERE LOOKS TO BE
SOME DECENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN THE SATURATED LOW LEVELS. SO
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MAIN THREAT SUN NIGHT WILL BE SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE WHERE TEMPS ARE COLD ENOUGH.
AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY MORNING, PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION INTO
DRIZZLE IN CENTRAL KS AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING.
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN KS IN THE
MORNING AS WAA INCREASES AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT CONTINUES. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY GIVEN THE MODEL SPREAD,
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER, AND UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAST TEMPERATURES
MIGHT BOUNCE BACK. FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TO 20-50% ACROSS THE AREA AS SURFACE
WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY/SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS. ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT, 850 MB WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM
THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH, HELPING TO MOISTEN THE LOW-LEVELS
AND AID IN ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE UPPER
AIR PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH A FEW SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN TO BE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FOR BOTH OF THESE PERIODS, PWATS LOOK TO RISE
WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TO CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH VALUES
ABOVE 1" ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST KS MAKING HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OR FLOODING ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
STAY TUNED AS THIS FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 511 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS PREVAILING. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS LOOK TO
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING LATE MORNING HOURS ON
SUNDAY AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE FOR THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GC/RBL
AVIATION...CDJ
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