557
FXUS63 KICT 011802
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1202 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. MIX OF RAIN & SLEET POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, THEN A
CHANCE OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL & SOUTHEAST
KANSAS.
- CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR STORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING, WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN EMBEDDED SUBTLE MID TO
UPPER TROUGH EXITING THE ROCKIES AND ENTERING THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS
FEATURE IS GOING TO BE THE CATALYST FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG WITH POSSIBILITY OF A WINTRY MIX ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL, NORTHERN, AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM OVER THE ROCKIES LATER
TODAY, ABOVE THE SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS, WIDESPREAD MID-LEVEL WAA
WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS. AS A RESULT,
SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY PROGRESS
NORTHEASTWARD. AROUND 100-300 J/KG OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
ADDITIONALLY, GIVEN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT, VERY SMALL HAIL OR
SLEET IS ALSO POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE FREEZING MARK. AS MID-LEVEL WAA
SHIFTS EASTWARD THIS EVENING, CHANCES FOR SLEET, RAIN, AND STORMS
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD WITH IT. HOWEVER, SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO BE INSISTENT ON THE LOW-LEVELS BEING SATURATED WITH VERY SUBTLE
LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVERSPREADING THE AREA, PARTICULARLY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. THIS SHOULD GENERALLY SUPPORT AT
LEAST PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. WET-BULB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE HOVERING
EITHER AT, OR JUST BELOW, THE FREEZING MARK ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
THIS WILL BE CRUCIAL AS TO WHETHER OR NOT FREEZING DRIZZLE OCCURS
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS, AND WHETHER ELEVATED SURFACES DEVELOP SLICK
AND ICY SPOTS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. FORTUNATELY, THE
POTENTIAL FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD GLAZE OF ICE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
WILL BE MITIGATED BY WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES FROM RECENT NEAR-
RECORD WARMTH ALONG WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES BEING ON THE MARGINAL
SIDE. THAT BEING SAID, IF DRIZZLE OCCURS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
20S, THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
COVERAGE IN PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED, AND WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO WARM WELL-ABOVE
FREEZING, ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL BE ALL RAIN. HOWEVER,
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL STEADILY INCREASE AND PERSIST
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS AN ACTIVE PATTERN
SETTLES IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MID-RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY SIGNALED A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND LASTING INTO AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING, IF NOT LATER. THIS GUIDANCE IS ALSO
SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS TUESDAY
EVENING OR NIGHT ALONG THE SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT. MODEST
INSTABILITY AROUND 1000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 55 TO 65
KNOTS WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION, AND A FEW
STRONG STORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, PWATS ARE LIKELY TO BE
WELL ABOVE 1 INCH AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUPPORTING
THE POTENTIAL FOR EFFICIENT AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY STORM THAT
DEVELOPS.
ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES HAVE BEEN NOTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH GUIDANCE BEING SPLIT ON EXACTLY WHAT WILL OCCUR TOWARDS THE END
OF THE WEEK. SOME SOLUTIONS, LIKE THE DETERMINISTIC GFS, ARE MUCH
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE RETURN OF AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
OVERSPREADING THE EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS AHEAD OF A MORE PROGRESSIVE
SYSTEM. THIS WOULD GENERALLY SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG
OR MARGINALLY SEVERE. HOWEVER, MORE SOLUTIONS, LIKE THE ECMWF, ARE
MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF A SLOWER
SYSTEM. THIS WOULD KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS DELAYED UNTIL
FRIDAY, BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
WOULD STILL BE A CONCERN. THERE ARE A NUMBER OF DETAILS STILL TO
WORK OUT OVER THE COMING DAYS, SO STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES TO THE
FORECAST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
SLEET POTENTIAL OVER CENTRAL KS AND FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE
TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING.
STORMS QUICKLY DEVELOPED LATE THIS MORNING AS 850-700MB THETA-E
ADVECTION RAMPED-UP. THEY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH KSLN AND KCNU HAVING THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE A
STORM. SOME SMALL HAIL OR SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS. FOR TONIGHT, LOW LEVELS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
SATURATE WITH SOME POCKETS OF FOG OR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS. LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
MARGINAL VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS FORECAST BOTH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO WARM AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, RAINFALL AND MORE AMPLE MOISTURE WILL
DAMPEN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...RBL
FIRE WEATHER...JC
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