449
FXUS63 KICT 012119
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
319 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING,
PRIMARILY ACROSS CENTRAL KS.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 319 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS HIGHLIGHT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A SUBTLE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS KANSAS. WARM- AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
RESULTED IN A COMBINATION OF SLEET, SMALL HAIL, AND RAIN SHOWERS
EARLIER TODAY ACROSS THE AREA. THESE WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING
EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE COULD SEE
SOME LINGERING AND REDEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH THE REST OF THE AREA EXPECTED TO SEE LIGHT
DRIZZLE BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO MONDAY
MORNING. LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL
KANSAS TONIGHT AS WELL, WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST JUST BELOW
FREEZING AND WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS THE AREA. PER PRIOR
DISCUSSIONS, WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE LARGELY EXPECTED TO
MITIGATE IMPACTS, THOUGH SOME SURFACES MAY BE SLICK MONDAY
MORNING ESPECIALLY IF COOLER TEMPERATURES PAN OUT.
A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING (PER HREF
PROBABILITIES) BEFORE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS RETURN IN THE
AFTERNOON. THESE ON-AND-OFF CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF A POSITIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE ROLLING IN OFF THE ROCKIES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MID-RANGE GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY HIGHLIGHTS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
STRONG STORMS, WITH INSTABILITY UP TO 1000 J/KG ALONGSIDE 50
KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR ALLOWING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
IN THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. EFFICIENT AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1" HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
THE ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK WITH LONG-TERM MODELS BRINGING ANOTHER MID-LEVEL WAVE
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY.
THERE APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE MORE AGREEMENT AMONG GFS/CANADIAN/EURO
DETERMINISTIC MODELS FOR THIS RUN AS ALL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW. STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE
WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO STAY TUNED AS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION BECOMES
AVAILABLE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
SLEET POTENTIAL OVER CENTRAL KS AND FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE
TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING.
STORMS QUICKLY DEVELOPED LATE THIS MORNING AS 850-700MB THETA-E
ADVECTION RAMPED-UP. THEY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH KSLN AND KCNU HAVING THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE A
STORM. SOME SMALL HAIL OR SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS. FOR TONIGHT, LOW LEVELS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
SATURATE WITH SOME POCKETS OF FOG OR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS. LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 319 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL
VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER ACROSS SOUTHERN KS, THEN AGAIN ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS IN CENTRAL KS. HOWEVER, RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO LARGELY PRECLUDE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...RBL
FIRE WEATHER...JWK
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