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FXUS63 KICT 021733
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1133 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW POTENTIAL FOR SLICK SPOTS ON ELEVATED SURFACES FROM
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
MORNING.
- CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOME
STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR STORMS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ACTIVITY AS WELL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING, ZONAL FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, AND THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION IS COMING ONSHORE
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON. AT THE SURFACE,
NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT, KEEPING COOLER AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY, SATURATED LOW LEVELS WITH JUST A
HINT OF SUBTLE LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL LEADING TO PATCHY
DRIZZLE CONTINUING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FREEZING LINE
IS GENERALLY LOCATED ALONG A SALINA-HUTCHINSON-PRATT LINE, AND
DRIZZLE THAT IS OCCURRING NORTH AND WEST OF THIS LINE MAY BE
FREEZING ON ELEVATED SURFACES. GROUND TEMPERATURES WELL-ABOVE
FREEZING SHOULD HELP TO KEEP WIDESPREAD ICY SPOTS FROM
DEVELOPING, BUT SLICK SPOTS ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES ARE
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS UNTIL TEMPERATURES
SOLIDLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING AFTER 15Z. PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG
WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS MORNING.
A FEW ISOLATED LINGERING SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TODAY IN LIEU OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SHORT-TERM
GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY PERSISTENT WITH THE IDEA OF WIDESPREAD MID-LEVEL
WAA OVERSPREADING THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER, WITH BETTER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY DISPLACED OFF TO THE EAST, THE BEST CHANCES
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND
NORTHEAST OF A SALINA-EUREKA-COFFEYVILLE LINE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL WANE
LATER TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. BY LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO BE LOCATED
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN KANSAS. OPPORTUNITIES FOR CONVECTION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE THWARTED BY STOUT CAPPING, EVENING
WITH STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH
SYNOPTIC LIFT INCREASING AS A RESULT OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ENTERING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TUESDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT, THE CAP SHOULD ERODE, AND WIDELY SCATTERED ELEVATED
CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG, OR JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. A NARROW ZONE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AROUND 1000 J/KG
ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 40-45 KNOTS SHOULD SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING UP TO
QUARTER-SIZED HAIL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND
SHOULD EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A BRIEF
BREAK IN ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF
THURSDAY BEFORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT.
WHILE EXACT DETAILS ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT AT THIS TIME, WE'RE
STARTING TO GET A BETTER IDEA ON HOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL UNFOLD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL ENTER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS ON THURSDAY WITH A LEAD SUBTLE
IMPULSE RACING OVER THE ROCKIES AND ENTERING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY
THE EVENING HOURS. THIS LEADING SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH SYNOPTIC LIFT TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES LATE THURSDAY EVENING. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL RACE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHTTIME HOURS AND
LIKELY IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. ANY STORM IS LIKELY TO BE ELEVATED, SO HAIL WOULD BE
THE MOST LIKELY THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER STORM IN THIS TIME FRAME.
THEN, AS THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH A COLD FRONT CRASHING SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY,
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS, MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE, AS
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR
STORMS GRADUALLY COME TO AN END EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FROM WEST
TO EAST, AND A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR
THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
CHALLENGING TAF FORECAST, WITH WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CEILINGS MAY GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO HIGH IFR OR EVEN LOW MVFR
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING, BEFORE STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION BRINGS VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS
BACK DOWN IN -DZ AND BR. LIFR CONDITIONS ARE DEFINITELY POSSIBLE
AREAWIDE LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY GIVEN THE SHARPENING STRONG
FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER, BUT KEPT WITH IFR FOR NOW
GIVEN CONFIDENCE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN
MARGINAL VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER ACROSS SOUTHERN KS,
THEN AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS IN CENTRAL KS.
HOWEVER, RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO LARGELY PRECLUDE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...ADK
FIRE WEATHER...JC
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