515
FXUS63 KICT 021901
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
101 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER
THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT BISECTS SOUTHERN KANSAS.
- CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOME
STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR STORMS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ACTIVITY AS WELL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
SHALLOW COLD AIR CONTINUES TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA LATE THIS MORNING WITH LOW CLOUDS AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AREA APPROACHING THE ROCKIES
LATE IN THE PERIOD TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SFC PRESSURE FALLS
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS IN EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WILL ALLOW
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO RETURN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION AS WE
MOVE THROUGH THE DAY. WE COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO TONIGHT (MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
OVER SOUTHEAST KS) AS THE LLJ NOSES INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS. POINT
SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG CAP IN PLACE WITH A WARM NOSE IN THE
H8-H7 LAYER, LIKELY PRECLUDING DEEP MOIST CONVECTION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE BENEATH THE INVERSION COULD
RESULT IN DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WHILE ELEVATED PARCELS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED TO DEEP MOIST CONVECTION.
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC IS PROGGED TO DEVELOPED EASTWARD ALONG THE
KS AND OK STATE LINE ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO MEANDER INTO SOUTHERN
KS ON TUE. WE EXPECT A VERY SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT TO IMPACT
SOUTHERN KS WHERE HIGHS IN THE 70S MAY MATERIALIZE SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT WHILE AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT MAY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF
THE 40S. TEMPERATURES WERE TRENDED MUCH LOWER AS THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS KEEPING THE SHALLOW COOL AIR LOCKED IN OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
KANSAS MAY RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S DURING THE DAY.
MAINTAINED SOME MID POPS THROUGH THE DAY INTO TUE NIGHT ALTHOUGH
STOUT CAPPING CONTINUES TO BE PRESENT. AS THE PV ANOMALY APPROACHES
LATE TUE INTO EARLY WED WE MAY SEE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
IMPACT MUCH OF THE AREA. ELEVATED CAPE OF 500-700+ J/KG WITH STEEP
MID LVL LAPSE RATES MAY ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG OR MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS. AS THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST NOTED, SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY ON WED, GRADUALLY EXITING TOWARD THE END
OF THE DAY. WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING LATE IN THE DAY AND LITTLE TO
SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, SOME FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA ON WED NIGHT.
THU-FRI...ANOTHER VIGOROUS TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AREA AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC LOW TO DEEPEN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN
COLORADO, RESULTING IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM, ALLOWING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. A
DEVELOPING LLJ IS PROGGED TO NOSE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. STEEP
MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WITH SOME ELEVATED CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG MAY
SUPPORT SOME HAILERS WITH ANY ELEVATED STORMS THAT DEVELOP. WE COULD
SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
SURGES SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
WEIGHTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE
ACTIVITY SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.
SAT-MON...A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
AREA AS THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN AREA BECOMES CUTOFF OVER THE
BAJA AREA AND THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHEARS EASTWARD
OVER THE WEEKEND. COOLER AIR IS PROGGED TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA ON
SAT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WHILE MODERATING TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED SUN-MON WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
CHALLENGING TAF FORECAST, WITH WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CEILINGS MAY GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO HIGH IFR OR EVEN LOW MVFR
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING, BEFORE STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION BRINGS VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS
BACK DOWN IN -DZ AND BR. LIFR CONDITIONS ARE DEFINITELY POSSIBLE
AREAWIDE LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY GIVEN THE SHARPENING STRONG
FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER, BUT KEPT WITH IFR FOR NOW
GIVEN CONFIDENCE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER
OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE MORE WIDESPREAD FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...ADK
FIRE WEATHER...MWM
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