229
FXUS63 KICT 030949
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
349 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES FOR STORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME
MAY BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH UP TO QUARTER SIZE
HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
- A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY IS FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND, BUT THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING MORE ACTIVE ONCE AGAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
..ACTIVE EARLY SPRING PATTERN AHEAD
EARLY THIS MORNING, WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS A
SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES AND PROGRESSING
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, AMPLE
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ARE
OVERSPREADING THE REGION. THIS MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS FAR EASTERN KANSAS INTO
MISSOURI. ADDITIONALLY, SATURATED LOW-LEVELS WITH LOW-LEVEL
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING. LASTLY,
FOG IS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN
KANSAS, AND AS THE SATURATED LOW-LEVELS GET SHALLOWER THIS
MORNING, DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO FOG BEFORE MIXING OUT
BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHWARD OUT OF OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD IN HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY, ESPECIALLY
WITH THICK STRATUS PERSISTING NORTH OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
GENERALLY SPEAKING, AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 60S AND 70S ARE
ANTICIPATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHILE THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL ONLY SEE HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. DESPITE
FAIRLY ROBUST SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT, SURFACE
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE THWARTED BY STRONG
CAPPING. HOWEVER, AS THE TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD INTO THE
REGION, HEIGHT FALLS AND VORTICITY ADVECTION ALOFT WILL AID IN
BROAD SYNOPTIC LIFT OVERSPREADING THE AREA. AS A RESULT,
CAPPING SHOULD ERODE, AND SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OVERALL, SHORT-
TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING THIS CONVECTION JUST A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH, AND IT'S MOST LIKELY THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF US-54 COULD SEE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE CONVECTION
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. DUE TO THE ELEVATED NATURE OF
THESE STORMS (LIKELY ROOTED ABOVE 800 MB), DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND TORNADOES ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER,
~1500 J/KG OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY, AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND
40 KNOTS, SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE (ALTHOUGH LARGER HAIL
CANNOT BE RULED OUT). STORMS WILL LAST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THEY PROGRESS EASTWARD, AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
KANSAS MAY NOT SEE RAIN CHANCES END UNTIL THE MID-AFTERNOON
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. A BRIEF BREAK IN ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY BEFORE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
MORE PRECISE DETAILS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE STILL A BIT
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM IS STILL WELL OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE AS OF THIS MORNING. WITH THAT SAID,
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT. MOST OF THURSDAY IS LIKELY
TO BE ON THE QUIET SIDE WITH THE MAIN FOCUS BEING ON INCREASING
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW USHERING IN AMPLE MOISTURE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HONING IN ON THE
IDEA THAT A LEAD IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO TRIGGER NUMEROUS STORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ROBUST MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF
THESE STORMS ALONG WITH RELATIVELY WEAK CAPPING, MODEST
INSTABILITY, AND SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR, SHOULD SUPPORT SOMEWHAT
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
AND MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT EASTWARD LATE FRIDAY
MORNING, AND IT APPEARS AS THROUGH QUICK ATMOSPHERIC RECOVERY
SHOULD TAKE PLACE AHEAD OF A DRYLINE OUT IN WESTERN KANSAS AND A
COLD FRONT CRASHING SOUTHWARD OUT OF NEBRASKA. WITH WEAK
CAPPING, SUFFICIENT SYNOPTIC LIFT DUE TO THE INCOMING UPPER
TROUGH, AND ENOUGH SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE AND
COLD FRONT, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY EVENING AND LAST INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST. SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY, SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT TO
SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH, WITH STORM MOTIONS
RUNNING PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, ANY EARLY SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES SHOULD MERGE INTO A LINE OF STORMS. GENERALLY
SPEAKING, THE MAIN HAZARDS ARE LIKELY TO BE LIMITED TO LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY IS FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER, MID
TO LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS
INCREASINGLY LIKELY TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. DETAILS ARE
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN IN THE DAY 7-10 TIME FRAME, SO BE SURE TO STAY
TURNED FOR UPDATES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
AND MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. LOW CIGS IN THE IFR/LIFR CATEGORY
AND LOWER VISIBILITIES WILL AFFECT AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY. EASTERLY WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTHEAST THEN EAST AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT SLIDES EASTWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER
OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE MORE WIDESPREAD FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KSZ032-033-047-048-
050.
DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...CDJ
FIRE WEATHER...JC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page