564
FXUS63 KICT 031949
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
149 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES FOR STORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME MAY
BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH QUARTER SIZED HAIL.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
- A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY IS FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 146 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
..ACTIVE EARLY SPRING PATTERN AHEAD
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS MORNING IS PROGGED
TO SHEAR EASTWARD AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE
EMERGING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
ON WEDNESDAY. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PROGGED DOWNSTREAM
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AREA REMAINS IN THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO A 90 KT H25 JET. AS THE LLJ NOSES INTO
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS AFTER 07-09Z WE WILL SEE INCREASING
PROBABILITIES FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. PROBABILITIES FOR STORMS
MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON WED, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE AREA. WE CONTINUE TO SEE SUPPORT FOR
SOME STRONG OR EVEN A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL GIVEN STEEP
MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND ELEVATED CAPE OVER 1000 J/KG WEIGHTED IN THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. A GENERAL
DECREASE IS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A LULL EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING RETURNS IN THE WAKE OF THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, PARCELS MAY REMAIN CAPPED TO DEEP MOIST CONVECTION ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE WELL
UNDERWAY LATE IN THE DAY. AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY EVENING AND
THURSDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. A DEVELOPING LLJ MAY SUPPORT SCATTERED OR
WIDELY SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS AND WITH STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED HAILERS ONCE
AGAIN.
A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW A DRYLINE TO SHARPEN OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATE IN THE DAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MOST NUMEROUS ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE DRY LINE LATE IN THE DAY WHILE ACCELERATING SOUTH
AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. BUT OTHER MORE ISOLATED
OR WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE AS
THE CAP WEAKENS LATE IN THE DAY. THIS ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN MORE
DISCRETE BRINGING THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND
EVEN A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.
SAT-MON...A STABLE POST-FRONTAL REGIME IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE
AREA ON SAT IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM WITH SOME SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR ANTICIPATED. THIS COOLDOWN IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
A SHARP SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL ZONE CURRENTLY NEAR THE KS/OK
BORDER WILL NUDGE SLIGHTLY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS, WITH WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE
FRONT, IMPACTING ALL OF OUR TAF SITES (ICT-HUT-SLN-GBD-RSL-CNU).
WAS FAIRLY PESSIMISTIC IN THE 18Z ROUTINE TAFS GIVEN
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. WHILE IT'S POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE PERIODS
OF IMPROVEMENT TO LOW MVFR, CONFIDENCE ON TIMING WAS LOW SO JUST
CONTINUED WITH IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KS, IMPACTING MAINLY ICT AND CNU, AND POSSIBLY HUT AS WELL. FOR
NOW, CONTINUED WITH PROB30 GROUPS FOR THIS ACTIVITY. WHILE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, DIME-QUARTER SIZE
HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY, ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 146 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER
OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE MORE WIDESPREAD FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER MAY RETURN ON MONDAY AS
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN TO THE AREA.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...ADK
FIRE WEATHER...MWM
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