528
FXUS63 KICT 101751
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1251 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WILL MAINLY AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AFTER 5PM, AND LOOK TO DIMINISH AROUND MIDNIGHT
OR 1AM
- COOLER AND WINDY ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY EVEN STRONGER WINDS ON
THURSDAY WHICH LOOKS TO ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER RISK TO CRITICAL
LEVELS
- A NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN COULD BE IN STORE FOR KANSAS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
KANSAS FOR TODAY. SEE CLIMATE SECTION DOWN BELOW FOR DETAILS.
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALREADY SPREADING
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS, AND BEHAVIOR/MAINTENANCE OF THIS
MOISTURE DURING THE DAY ALONG WITH TIMING OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
RESPONSE FROM A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL BE
KEY THING TO MONITOR FOR STORM INITIATION TIMING/LOCATION. CAM
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A VERY DEEPLY MIXED
AIRMASS FORCING PARCELS TO REACH THEIR LFC LEVEL DURING THE 4PM
TO 6PM TIMEFRAME. WHICH SPARKS OFF HIGH BASED CONVECTION OVER
NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MEDICINE LODGE
AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BY THIS EVENING WHERE DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
BEGIN TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD FROM INCREASING 850MB JET ALONG WITH
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE STRENGTHENING ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT.
WHERE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF HIGHER INSTABILITY/STRONG MID-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR SUPPORTS LARGE HAIL UP GOLF BALLS AND DAMAGING
WINDS FROM MODEST DCAPE VALUES. THE ACTIVITY COULD TRANSITION
INTO A LINEAR BOWING SEGMENT NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS STORMS
CONGEAL TOGETHER WHICH COULD ENHANCE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.
THE ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY SPREAD EAST WITH THE SEVERE THREAT
DIMINISHING AROUND MIDNIGHT.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT PASSAGE FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WHERE 1000-850MB LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. THE LOW-LEVEL MIXING DEPTH WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE DURING THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY MAKING FOR A
WINDY AND COOLER DAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING THEN RAMP UP AGAIN ON THURSDAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITIES FOR 850MB WIND SPEEDS OF 40KTS OR GREATER DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY CONTINUES TO INCREASE COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS, THUS INCREASING THE CONFIDENCE FOR STRONG
SURFACE WINDS TO OCCUR(POSSIBLY REACHING INTO WIND ADVISORY LEVELS).
SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO STREAM OVERHEAD WHICH COULD LIMIT
THE FULL EXTENT OF MIXING, BUT ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL WITH INCREASED
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING OF THOSE 850MB WINDS TO THE
GROUND. A NICE WARMING TREND WILL BE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY-SATURDAY
ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER DUE TO RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEING SHOVED
WELL SOUTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF WEDNESDAY'S DEEP
SOUTHWARD COLD FRONT PLUNGE.
BIG WEATHER CHANGES ARE APPEARING TO ARRIVE DURING THE SUNDAY-MONDAY
PERIOD, AS MODEL ENSEMBLE TRENDS ARE HIGHLIGHTING A MORE PRONOUNCED
UPPER LEVEL WAVE RACING SOUTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS VIA THE NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH NOTICEABLY COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD
ACROSS KANSAS ALONG WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS MAKING FOR A WINTER LIKE
FEEL OVER THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS FOR A QUICK BURST
OF WINTER PRECIPITATION TO IMPACT THE EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS, BUT
THE FLEET-FOOTED NATURE OF THIS UPPER WAVE AT THIS TIME KEEPS THAT
RISK LOWER. WILL WATCH MODEL TRENDS FOR ANY CHANGES ON THIS
POTENTIAL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
SLOW DOWN AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.
BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY BUT REMAIN AROUND
10 KTS TODAY. SOUTH OF THE FRONT, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN
BREEZY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WHEN THE FRONT WILL FINALLY
CLEAR ALL OF KANSAS BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO SERVE
AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT ICT, HUT, AND CNU AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST.
ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL,
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS, AND HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY WILL
REDUCE VISIBILITY. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND EAST THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT OUT OF OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT.
NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BECOME BREEZY OVERNIGHT AND
REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL AFFECT CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
ON WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS, HOWEVER THAT THREAT
COULD BE REDUCED SOME FOR AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE MEANINGFUL RAINFALL
TUESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE THE DAY OF CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THURSDAY.
THIS IS WHEN THE COMBINATION OF VERY STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS, WARMER
TEMPERATURES, AND LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY SUPPORTS VERY HIGH TO
EXTREME FIRE DANGER LEVELS. AS A RESULT, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. OF NOTE...HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH COULD HINDER OUR GOES
SATELLITE TECHNOLOGY FULL CAPABILITIES TO DETECT GRASSLAND WILDFIRES
COMPARED TO CLEAR SKY DAYS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...
SITE RECORD HIGH YEAR TDY'S FORECAST HIGH
ICT 85 1989 84
CNU 85 1967 84
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...WI
FIRE WEATHER...CDJ
CLIMATE...CDJ
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