628
FXUS63 KICT 110514
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1214 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WILL MAINLY AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AFTER 5PM, AND LOOK TO DIMINISH AROUND MIDNIGHT
OR 1AM
- COOLER AND WINDY ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY EVEN STRONGER WINDS ON
THURSDAY WHICH LOOKS TO ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER RISK TO CRITICAL
LEVELS
- A NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN COULD BE IN STORE FOR KANSAS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
AS OF 2 PM, THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM JUST SOUTH
OF DODGE CITY TO NEAR ST. JOSEPH, MISSOURI. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT DEWPOINTS HAVE REMAINED IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE MID 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND WEAKENING THIS
AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE, A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL PREVENT DISCRETE
CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. HOWEVER, AS UPPER-LEVEL LIFT BEGINS TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE FORECAST THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT,
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME LIKELY ALONG THE FRONT
ESPECIALLY AS CONVERGENCE INCREASES WITH THE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
JET AFTER 7 PM. MUCAPE AROUND 2,000 J/KG WILL BE PRESENT ALONG WITH
AROUND 45 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WHICH WILL SUPPORT STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER, WITH THE STRENGTH OF FORCING, CLUSTERS OF
STORMS WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORM MODE WHICH WOULD SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SOUTH OF THE FRONT, AND
SOME LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT AS STORMS DEVELOP
AND THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. WHILE STORM MODE WOULD TEND TO
DECREASE THE TORNADO THREAT, LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS MAXIMIZED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHICH IS WHERE A SPINUP MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
IF ANY STORM CAN BECOME DISCRETE, BUT THE OVERALL THREAT OF A
TORNADO IS LOW. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY WHERE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS
IMPACT A COMMUNITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
BEHIND THE FRONT, NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT USHERING
IN A COOLER AIRMASS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE THE MID 40S ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE THE
FRONT WON'T MOVE THROUGH UNTIL SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
REMAIN BREEZY ON WEDNESDAY OUT OF THE NORTH AND WITH LIMITED TO NO
RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL RELAX WINDS AND DROP TEMPERATURES INTO
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY MORNING WHILE A SURFACE LOW
MOVES INTO NORTH DAKOTA THIS WILL TIGHTEN A PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
KANSAS WITH BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THAT LOW
WILL SEND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY
ALTHOUGH IT WON'T DO MUCH TO OUR AREA BESIDES WEAKEN WINDS. SATURDAY
WILL BE EVEN WARMER AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN TO THE REGION BOOSTING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE REGION AND
WILL ALSO BRING SOME MOISTURE WITH IT.
CURRENTLY THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL RAIN AS THE COLDEST AIR
WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT QUITE A BIT SO PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME
TO AN END BEFORE TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING. LOW TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND
LOWER 20S JUST TO REMIND US IT ISN'T COMPLETELY SPRING YET.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY MODERATE WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PERSISTING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
A COMBINATION OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EARLY PORTIONS OF THE PERIOD, WITH WIDESPREAD VFR ANTICIPATED TO
PREVAIL AFTER MID-MORNING.
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL KS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE STATE
THROUGHT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. POINT SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS PARTICULARLY AT CNU THAT MAY EXTEND
WEST TO BRIEFLY IMPACT ICT/HUT. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT AROUND
SUNRISE AND GIVE WAY TO VFR CEILINGS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS FOLLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL BE STRONG, WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS ABOVE 15 KTS AT ALL SITES AND GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KTS
PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE WILL SUBSIDE BY
SUNSET WITH SPEEDS FORECAST BELOW 10 KTS BY EVENING.
FINALLY, SHORT-TERM MODELS HIGHLIGHT MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY
FOLLOWING IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT THAT MAY ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A HANDFUL OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. FOR NOW, THE
REGION OF INTEREST LIES PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF I-135 THROUGH
MID MORNING, THOUGH WITH COVERAGE A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME,
DECIDED TO NOT MENTION AT ANY SITES FOR THIS CYCLE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 5 PM ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS TODAY BEFORE HUMIDITY VALUES BEGIN TO INCREASE.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL SHIFT TO CENTRAL AND PERHAPS PORTIONS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS (WHERE NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IS
OBSERVED TONIGHT) ON WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS.
THURSDAY WILL BE YET ANOTHER DAY OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WHEN
THE COMBINATION OF VERY STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS, WARMER
TEMPERATURES, AND LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY SUPPORTS VERY HIGH TO
EXTREME FIRE DANGER LEVELS ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. AS A RESULT, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
FOR THIS PERIOD ACROSS PRIMARILY CENTRAL KANSAS. OF NOTE...SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WHICH COULD HINDER OUR ABILITY TO DETECT GRASSLAND
WILDFIRES FROM SATELLITE.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...
SITE RECORD HIGH YEAR TDY'S FORECAST HIGH
ICT 85 1989 84
CNU 85 1967 84
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...WI
AVIATION...JWK
FIRE WEATHER...WI
CLIMATE...WI
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