452
FXUS63 KICT 110819
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
319 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY NORTH WILL WILL PREVAIL FOR
TODAY
- VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY WITH
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
HAS BEEN HOISTED
- CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS THE REGION, AS LONGER RANGE
MODELS SHOW A UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE THAT BECOMES
LESS FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL BE A DRAMATIC
CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY'S VERY WARM TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS.
MEANWHILE, THE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT ALL THE
SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE AREA LAST NIGHT WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD
FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF STATES FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THIS WILL SHOVE ALL THE RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WELL SOUTH
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL DAYS TO
RECOVER/RETURN ANYTIME SOON FOR KANSAS. AS A RESULT, A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN IS LIKELY TO PREVAIL FOR SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. HEADING INTO THURSDAY, HREF PROBABILITIES
CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR 850MB WIND SPEEDS OF 40KTS OR GREATER
TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY. THE COMBINATION
OF TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DEEPER MIXING OF
THE ATMOSPHERE TAPPING INTO THOSE STRONGER 850MB WINDS WILL
CREATE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WIND
ADVISORY LEVELS COULD BE ATTAINED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.
A UPPER LEVEL WAVE TRAVEL SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR FRIDAY AND WILL
COME THROUGH DRY WITH NO MOISTURE AVAILABLE. MODEL ENSEMBLES
CONTINUE TO SHOW A WELL PRONOUNCED AND FLEET-FOOTED UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY, AND UNDER GOING
EXPLOSIVE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL
PUSH COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL MAKE
CONDITIONS FEEL COLDER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
THROUGH MONDAY. THE COLD AIR LOOKS TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS LONG
RANGE MODELS SHOW AN AMPLIFICATION OF A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
PATTERN OVER THE ROCKIES GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN SHIFT
STRONGLY FAVORS A WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
A COMBINATION OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EARLY PORTIONS OF THE PERIOD, WITH WIDESPREAD VFR ANTICIPATED TO
PREVAIL AFTER MID-MORNING.
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL KS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE STATE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. POINT SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS PARTICULARLY AT CNU THAT MAY EXTEND
WEST TO BRIEFLY IMPACT ICT/HUT. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT
AROUND SUNRISE AND GIVE WAY TO VFR CEILINGS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.
WINDS FOLLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL BE STRONG, WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS ABOVE 15 KTS AT ALL SITES AND GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KTS
PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE WILL SUBSIDE BY
SUNSET WITH SPEEDS FORECAST BELOW 10 KTS BY EVENING.
FINALLY, SHORT-TERM MODELS HIGHLIGHT MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY
FOLLOWING IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT THAT MAY ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A HANDFUL OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. FOR NOW, THE
REGION OF INTEREST LIES PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF I-135 THROUGH
MID MORNING, THOUGH WITH COVERAGE A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME,
DECIDED TO NOT MENTION AT ANY SITES FOR THIS CYCLE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL AFFECT CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND DRY AIR. THURSDAY REMAINS THE DAY OF FOCUS FOR
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. VERY STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS,
WARMER TEMPERATURES, AND LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL CREATE
VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH AT TIMES WILL IMPACT
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH AREA. ANY FIRE THAT IGNITES WILL HAVE HIGH
POTENTIAL TO TURN INTO A WILDFIRE AND BE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO
CONTROL. LIKE WE MENTIONED YESTERDAY MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SIGNS
OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. IF THOSE HIGH
CLOUDS BECOME THICKER IT WOULD HINDER OUR GOES SATELLITE TECHNOLOGY
FULL CAPABILITIES TO DETECT GRASSLAND WILDFIRES COMPARED TO CLEAR
SKY DAYS.
WE COULD SEE VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER MATERIALIZE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS, HOWEVER THAT FIRE WEATHER RISK
WILL DEPEND ON THE ARRIVAL TIME OF COLDER AIR. IF THE COLDER AIR
MOVES IN SOONER THIS COULD LOWER THE FIRE WEATHER RISK INTO THE HIGH
CATEGORY.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>052-067-068-082-083-091-092.
DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...JWK
FIRE WEATHER...CDJ
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