935
FXUS63 KICT 121739
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1239 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE REGION FOR
TODAY ALONG WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS, RED FLAG WARNING AND
WIND ADVISORY HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT
- A VERY POWERFUL WEATHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING MUCH COLDER AIR
AND STRONG NORTH WINDS TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
- WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY RETURN FOR TUESDAY-THURSDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
VERY STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF 40-50MPH WILL
SPREAD OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY, AS
COMBINATION OF DEEPER VERTICAL MIXING TAPS INTO HIGHER WIND
SPEEDS ALOFT AND SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REALLY TIGHTENS UP.
HREF PROBABILITIES FOR 850MB WINDS OF 40KTS OR GREATER HAS
INCREASED EVERY MODEL RUN AND LATEST GUIDANCE IS AT 70-100%
WHICH CREATES HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT STRONGER THAN NORMAL WINDS
WILL OCCUR. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED ACROSS THE REGION.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PASS THROUGH KANSAS FOR LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES AS DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN WARMER ON
SATURDAY BEFORE BIG WEATHER CHANGES LOOK TO IMPACT THE REGION ON
SUNDAY-MONDAY. DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
NOTEWORTHY DEEPENING TREND WITH THE UPPER TROUGH/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FOR THIS PERIOD, AS THE SYSTEM RACES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. IN ADDITION, LATEST ECMWF EFI INDEX VALUES
CONTINUE TO INCREASE WHICH SUGGESTS THAT UNUSUALLY STRONG NORTH
WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER KANSAS. MOST MODEL DATA IS
SHOWING AN ASTONISHING AND PROFOUND SIGNAL OF EXPLOSIVE SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. ADD IT ALL UP, THIS WILL RESULT IN A
ROBUST COLD FRONT BLASTING SOUTHWARD WITH A SUBSTANTIAL
INCREASE OF NORTH WIND SPEEDS, AND FALLING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
ACROSS KANSAS. THE POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR THE NORTH WIND
SPEEDS TO ATTAIN HIGH WIND WARNING LEVELS IF MODEL TRENDS
CONTINUE WITH THIS SIGNAL. FINALLY, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR
SOME WINTER PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT THE AREA HOWEVER LATEST
STORM TRACK BY THE MODELS WOULD BE MORE OF GLANCING BLOW. STAY
TUNED AS WE CONTINUE TO REFINE DETAILS ON THIS UPCOMING POWERFUL
WEATHER SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY.
COLDER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION ON
MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY'S WEATHER SYSTEM. HOWEVER THE COLD
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SHORT LIVED AS MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE ROCKIES THEN SHIFTING IT'S INFLUENCE
EASTWARD FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK. THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHIFT
WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
HEARTLAND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
EXPECT STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS FOR THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
TERMINALS, WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 40 KTS FOR KRSL, KHUT, KGBD, AND
KSLN. THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER NEAR SUNSET BUT KCNU MAY
SEE GUST UP TO 30 KTS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. A 50-55 KT LLJ
WILL OVER SPREAD THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. EXPECT KCNU TO
HAVE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR FROM 02Z THROUGH 07Z. THE REMAINDER OF
THE TERMINALS MAY SEE MODERATE WIND SHEAR THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS, SWITCHING WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS OF ONLY 10 KTS OR LESS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
EXTREME FIRE DANGER WILL IMPACT ALL OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS, WITH VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER OVER THE FLINT HILLS AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY MID TO
LATE MORNING AND REACH PEAK INTENSITY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP
TO 50MPH AT TIMES. WE EXPANDED THE RED FLAG WARNING ANOTHER ROW OF
COUNTIES TO THE EAST FOR TODAY. HIGH CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY STREAMING
SOUTHEAST INTO NEBRASKA AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD FURTHER
SOUTHEAST TODAY. WE WILL MONITOR THESE HIGH CLOUD TRENDS FOR TODAY
AS THEY COULD IMPACT OUR SATELLITE TECHNOLOGY FOR HOT SPOT
DETECTION, ESPECIALLY IF THE THICKER HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS.
FIRE DANGER RISK COULD BECOME ELEVATED AGAIN ON SUNDAY, HOWEVER MUCH
COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO BLAST SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY. THE TIMING OF THESE COLDER TEMPERATURES WOULD LOWER
THE FIRE WEATHER RISK IF IT SPREADS SOUTHWARD FASTER THAN THE
LATEST PROJECTIONS DESPITE VERY STRONG NORTH WINDS OVERSPREADING
THE AREA.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>069-082-083.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>069-082-083-091>093.
DISCUSSION...TOP
AVIATION...TOP
FIRE WEATHER...CDJ
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