044
FXUS63 KICT 130536
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1236 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS, RED
FLAG WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT
- A VERY POWERFUL WEATHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING MUCH COLDER AIR
AND STRONG NORTH WINDS TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY, WITH A CHANCE
FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY RETURN FOR TUESDAY-THURSDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW WAS NOTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL CONUS. A DEEP LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN
CO/WESTERN KS, COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING, WAS CAUSING SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUST OF 40 TO NEAR 50 MPH
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES. THE STRONG SURFACE WINDS AND
GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL, NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. THEREFORE,
THE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 7 PM.
THIS EVENING, THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 50 KTS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. THE STRONGER LOW-
LEVEL JET OF 60 KTS WILL DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF THE CWA ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL KS AND WESTERN MO. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS AS IF WIND GUSTS OF
35 TO 40 KTS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS BUT THERE IS SOME QUESTION TO HOW WIDESPREAD THE
STRONGER WIND GUSTS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES. NOT SURE
IF WE WILL KEEP THE DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AFTER SUNSET WHICH MAY
CONSTRAIN PARCEL MOMENTUM TRANSFERS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE
EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE LLJ AND HOW MUCH PARCEL
MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL OCCUR TO GET WIND GUSTS ABOVE 45 MPH.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE
EASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL CWA COUNTIES THIS EVENING, ONCE THE
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN COUNTIES EXPIRES.
A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY. THE WEAK
SURFACE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ALONG THE OK?KS BORDER ON
FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 60S
NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.
SATURDAY, THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL AND A LEE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS WESTERN NE/EASTERN CO. THE FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN OK WILL UNDERGO FRONTOLYSIS AS IT SHIFT NORTH. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERLY. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS. HIGHS
WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES WITH
MID 70S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CWA.
BIG CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AN H5
TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND AMPLIFY SUNDAY. STRONG LOW-LEVEL CAA ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL SEND MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE DURING THE
12Z-15Z TIME PERIOD AS THE FRONT RAPIDLY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CWA. TEMPERATURES MAY START OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S
NORTHWEST AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60S SOUTH BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL THROUGH THE 30S INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTHWEST AND
THROUGH THE 40S INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. THE
STRONGER ASCENT AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING H5 TROUGH WILL BE
NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CWA BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH ASCENT AND
FRONTOGENESIS FOR RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL BECOME MIX WITH AND
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS INTO THE
EARLY EVENING BEFORE ENDING. AT THIS TIME ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A DUSTING ON GRASSY SURFACE. ROAD SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM. SKIES WILL CLEAR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
IF YOU HAVE ANY TENDER PLANTS OUTDOORS THEY WILL NEED TO BE TAKEN IN
SUNDAY NIGHT, SINCE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
TEENS. MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KS INTO THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES WILL ONLY
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL BE
WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, EXPECT A WARMING TREND AS AN H5 RIDGE
ACROSS THE WESTERN US SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS.
THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK FROM THE NORTH-NORWEST TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST AND SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY. HIGHS TUESDAY
WILL WARM INTO THE MID 50S EAST TO LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST, HIGHS
ON WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 70S EAST TO UPPER 70S WEST,
AND BY THURSDAY, HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING.
SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL KS
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SOUTHERN KS AROUND SUNRISE. THIS
WILL FLIP WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH BUT WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. LATER THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE
SOUTHEAST AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES EAST. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
HIGH THAT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
THE PREVIOUS FIRE DISCUSSION LOOKS TO BE ON TARGET. THE CIRRUS
LOOKS THIN ENOUGH TO BE ABLE TO LOCATE HOT SPOTS. I PLACED IN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
EXTREME FIRE DANGER WILL IMPACT ALL OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS, WITH VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER OVER THE FLINT HILLS AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY MID TO
LATE MORNING AND REACH PEAK INTENSITY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP
TO 50MPH AT TIMES. WE EXPANDED THE RED FLAG WARNING ANOTHER ROW OF
COUNTIES TO THE EAST FOR TODAY. HIGH CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY STREAMING
SOUTHEAST INTO NEBRASKA AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD FURTHER
SOUTHEAST TODAY. WE WILL MONITOR THESE HIGH CLOUD TRENDS FOR TODAY
AS THEY COULD IMPACT OUR SATELLITE TECHNOLOGY FOR HOT SPOT
DETECTION, ESPECIALLY IF THE THICKER HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS.
THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT FIRE RISK SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH DEEP
MIXING AND LOW RHS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER, THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS LOOK TO BE TOO LIGHT AND DO NOT PICK UP
IN SPEEDS UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
FIRE DANGER RISK COULD BECOME ELEVATED AGAIN ON SUNDAY, HOWEVER MUCH
COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO BLAST SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY. THE TIMING OF THESE COLDER TEMPERATURES WOULD LOWER
THE FIRE WEATHER RISK IF IT SPREADS SOUTHWARD FASTER THAN THE
LATEST PROJECTIONS DESPITE VERY STRONG NORTH WINDS OVERSPREADING
THE AREA.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TOP
AVIATION...RBL
FIRE WEATHER...CDJ
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