923
FXUS63 KICT 131739
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1239 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- POTENT COLD FRONT SET TO SURGE THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
IN ADDITION, WE ARE LOOKING FOR NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY GUSTING
IN THE 50-60 MPH RANGE.
- SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP THEN EXPECTED TO COMMENCE FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
CURRENTLY HAVE STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS AN UPPER IMPULSE MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE, A TROUGH/WEAK COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTH OF KANSAS CITY TO JUST NORTH OF KRSL.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA TODAY AND
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LEE TROUGHING WILL
STRENGTHEN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY SATURDAY
EVENING. RETURN FLOW AND SOME DOWNSLOPE WILL ALLOW HIGHS ON
SATURDAY TO SPIKE-UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES,
WHICH IS AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
POTENT UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY. IN
RESPONSE, DEEP SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND QUICKLY TRACK FROM
NORTHERN KS/SOUTHERN NEBRASKA INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
SUNDAY EVENING. UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SURGE
ACROSS THE PLAINS BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
WITH EXTREMELY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE
FRONT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE ARE LOOKING AT MAX WIND GUSTS
IN THE 50 TO 60 MPH RANGE, WITH THE HIGHER GUSTS OVER CENTRAL
KS. TO MAKE THINGS WORSE, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW
SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING SOME DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE
LOWEST 2KM BEHIND THE FRONT, WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME BURST OF
SNOW THAT MAY BRING BRIEF WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS. THE GFS HAS KEPT
IT'S TREND OF HAVING A DEEPER TROUGH COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND
DOES HAVE SOME SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z NAM, WITH THE CANADIAN A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO. THEREFORE THE GFS/NAM WOULD RESULT
IN HIGHER SNOW TOTALS COMPARED TO THE ECMWF, BUT REGARDLESS OF
WHICH MODEL VERIFIES, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT NORTHEAST KS INTO
THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR SNOW THAT MAY ACCUMULATE SOME.
VERY COLD TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR MON MORNING, WITH MORNING
READINGS IN THE TEENS AREA WIDE. AFTER MONDAY, THERE IS GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT THAT PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SETUP
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH STRONG UPPER RIDGING STARTING TO BUILD-
IN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PROMOTE A
WARMING TREND WITH WIDESPREAD 80S LIKELY BY THURSDAY WITH SOME
90S EVEN POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL KS FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH
AT TIMES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY.
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RETURN TONIGHT BECOMING BREEZY AS WE
MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 134 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
BRIEF PERIOD OF VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER SUNDAY, BEFORE COLDER AIR
MOVES-IN.
VERY STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA, WITH GUSTS IN THE 50-60 MPH RANGE LIKELY.
THESE WINDS WOULD BE AN ISSUE FOR ANY ONGOING FIRES WHEN THE
WINDS PICK-UP. HOWEVER, WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS MOVING-IN ALONG
WITH SOME PRECIP, FIRE IGNITION MAYBE DIFFICULT. NEVERTHELESS,
WE WILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER RIGHT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY, DUE TO STRONG WINDS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...MWM
FIRE WEATHER...RBL
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