434
FXUS63 KICT 132039
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
339 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
- STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY BRINGING MUCH
COLDER AIR AND POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING. ADDITIONALLY, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO GUST UP TO 50-60 MPH ON SUNDAY.
- SUBSTANTIAL WARM-UP EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SPINNING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW SITTING OVER MICHIGAN AND A COLD DRAPED DOWN THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN OUR AREA,
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AT
THE SURFACE AND HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 60S.
ON SATURDAY MORNING, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS AND IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN LEE
TROUGHING RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND INCREASED SURFACE
WINDS, HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 70S ACROSS
THE AREA.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EJECT INTO THE PLAINS BY
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PUSH A DEEP SURFACE LOW AND STRONG COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS
FRONT, STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MORNING
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN
35 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WEST OF
THE FLINT HILLS. GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL, A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR CENTRAL, SOUTH-CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KS.
ADDITIONALLY, MUCH COLDER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH RESULTING IN
TEMPERATURES DROPPING THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ALONG WITH THIS,
A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND THE
EVENING. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND BENIGN SURFACE CAPE COULD
LEAD TO BURSTS OF MODERATE SNOWFALL. AT THIS TIME, LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH MAINLY A DUSTING ANTICIPATED ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS WHERE COLDER SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE. THIS MAY LEAD TO PATCHY SLICK SPOTS ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES
AND ELEVATED SURFACES, OTHERWISE LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. FARTHER SOUTH, A MIX OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
SNOW SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE BUT GIVEN THE WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ANY ACCUMULATION. STAY TUNED AS WE REFINE THIS
FORECAST.
BY MONDAY, THE POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WITH THE DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA. BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO WIND
CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH VALUES NEAR ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL
AMPLIFY DEVELOPING A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME OVER THE PLAINS.
RIDGING IS PROGGED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH
THICKNESS ALSO INCREASING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN WARMING
ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUE RISING WITH 80S EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY
LATE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH
AT TIMES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY.
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RETURN TONIGHT BECOMING BREEZY AS WE
MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY, AND INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL LEAD TO VERY HIGH
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL
KS. CRITICAL FIRE DANGER OR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
FOR SUNDAY, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 50-60 MPH CAUSING
VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES MOVING IN ALONG WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY ABOVE 45% AND
SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES, FIRE DANGER CONCERNS SHOULD BE MORE
LIMITED.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
KSZ032-033-047>053-067>070-082-083-091>094.
DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...MWM
FIRE WEATHER...GC
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