680
FXUS63 KICT 141735
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1235 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE TODAY WITH HIGHS ACROSS
CENTRAL KS APPROACHING 80 DEGREES.
- EXTREMELY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND A STRONG COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY, WITH 50-60 MPH GUSTS LIKELY WITH A FEW
APPROACHING 65 MPH. SNOW SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
- SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP ANTICIPATED FOR NEXT WEEK, WITH
WIDESPREAD 80S LIKELY STARTING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
STRONG WEST/NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE FROM THE
GREAT BASIN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWING SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
AT THE SURFACE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH LEE TROUGHING CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN TODAY AND IN RESPONSE, SURFACE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY FROM EASTERN CO INTO EASTERN WY.
INCREASING RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE
70S, WHICH IS AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, UPPER TROUGH WILL BE TRACKING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND OUT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. IN
RESPONSE, LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY STRENGTHEN OVER EASTERN IA
INTO NW IL, WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTH THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL KS
AROUND SUNRISE AND BE THROUGH SOUTHEAST KS BY 18Z. BEHIND THE
FRONT, CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY HIGH IN EXTREME NORTHWEST WINDS,
WITH GUSTS IN THE 50-60 MPH RANGE LIKELY. WITH MOST MODELS NOW
SHOWING AROUND 55KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, FEEL THAT IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS AROUND 65 MPH. DID GO AHEAD AND ADD SOME
BLOWING DUST FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL KS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
STILL LOOKING FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
MODELS REMAINING CONSISTENT IN SHOWING STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS QUICKLY
TRACKING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST, WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION
OVER NORTHEAST KS. FEEL THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH THESE WILL BE
QUICK REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AS LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY PRODUCES
POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW BUT COMBINED WITH EXTREME WINDS, WILL
BRING RAPID REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY.
BY MON MORNING, UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL GET
THE PLAINS BACK INTO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS UPPER RIDGING
STARTS TO BUILD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. UPPER RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD AND EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND WILL
REMAIN STAGNANT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND STARTING WED AND LASTING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL BE LIKELY STARTING THURSDAY AND
PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. IT'S NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION WE MAY SEE SOME HIGHS APPROACH 90 DEGREES WEST OF
I-135.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
VERY STRONG/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING IN WAKE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. GUSTS UPWARDS OF 45-55 KTS ARE LIKELY.
ADDITIONALLY, AREAS OF QUICK-HITTING SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
LATE MORNING SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY TO MID-EVENING, DRASTICALLY
REDUCING VISIBILITY AT TIMES. HOWEVER, DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE
18Z ROUTINE TAFS BECAUSE THIS IS BEYOND THE 24 HOUR LIMIT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL BE IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH
OF CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL BE DUE TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20
MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH AND AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE
20-30% RANGE.
FOR SUNDAY, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 50-60 MPH CAUSING
VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES MOVING IN ALONG WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY ABOVE 45% AND
SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES, FIRE DANGER CONCERNS SHOULD BE MORE
LIMITED.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 10 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047-048.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ049>053-
067>071-082-083-091>095-098-099.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ072-096-100.
DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...ADK
FIRE WEATHER...GC
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