040
FXUS63 KICT 150615
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
115 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY ARE IN EFFECT FROM EARLY SUNDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AS STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUST UP
TO 60 MPH, WITH SOME AREAS APPROACHING 65 MPH IN CENTRAL KS.
- STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY BRINGING MUCH
COLDER AIR AND POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING.
- SUBSTANTIAL WARM-UP EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS RISING INTO
THE 80S LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXITING THE NORTHEASTERN US WITH AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE SITS OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A
WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER THROUGH THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE KY/TN BORDER. A COLD FRONT STRETCHES
FROM CENTRAL WYOMING THROUGH SOUTHERN IDAHO INTO SOUTHERN
OREGON. IN OUR AREA, BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE WITH HIGHS
RISING INTO THE 70S.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EJECT INTO THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PUSH A DEEP
SURFACE LOW AND STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SUNDAY MORNING, WITH THE FRONT SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. BEHIND THIS FRONT, VERY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN, STARTING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN
35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ITS
POSSIBLE FOR LOCALLY HIGHER WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 60 TO 70 MPH
ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL KS. FARTHER SOUTHEAST, WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN
25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL, A HIGH
WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL, SOUTH-CENTRAL, AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FAR
SOUTHEAST KS WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE LESS THAN THE
REST OF THE AREA. BLOWING DUST IS ALSO POSSIBLE WEST OF THE FLINT
HILLS ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL AND PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KS.
ADDITIONALLY, MUCH COLDER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH RESULTING IN
TEMPERATURES DROPPING THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH MORNING HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S TO THE LOW 60S. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE WILL DROP INTO THE 30S. ALONG WITH
THIS, A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON
AND THE EVENING. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND BENIGN INSTABILITY
COULD LEAD TO BURSTS OF MODERATE SNOWFALL, WHICH COULD CAUSE DRASTIC
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. AT THIS TIME, LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED WITH UP TO A HALF INCH ANTICIPATED IN MAINLY NORTHEAST KS.
THIS WOULD BE WHERE COLDER SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE, LEADING TO
PATCHY SLICK SPOTS ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND ELEVATED SURFACES.
FARTHER SOUTH, A MIX OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE,
BUT GIVEN THE WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES, ONLY A LIGHT DUSTING IS
LIKELY.
BY MONDAY, THE POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WITH THE DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA. BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO WIND
CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH VALUES NEAR ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL
AMPLIFY DEVELOPING A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME OVER THE PLAINS.
RIDGING IS PROGGED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH
THICKNESS ALSO INCREASING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN WARMING
ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUE RISING WITH 80S EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY
LATE WORK WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS TO
MOVE-IN BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.
COLD FRONT IS SET TO MOVE THROUGH KRSL-KGBD AROUND 11Z AND KICT
AROUND 14Z. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY RAMP-
UP WITH GUSTS IN THE 45 TO 55 MPH RANGE LIKELY. THEN WE SHOULD
SEE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN SPEEDS BY 16-17Z WHERE GUSTS IN THE
60-65 MPH RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WEST OF
I-135. WINDS WILL START TO QUICKLY DECREASE IN THE 00-01Z TIME
FRAME BUT WILL STILL REMAIN GUSTY.
WE MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH KSLN AND KCNU HAVING THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE
THESE. AT THIS POINT, CONFIDENCE IS ONLY HIGH ENOUGH TO RUN WITH
VCSH. ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT STRONG WINDS MAY KICK-UP
SOME BLOWING DUST, WITH CENTRAL KS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE
SOME REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO DUST. THIS WILL BE
SOMETHING DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND
INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL LEAD TO VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL KS. CRITICAL FIRE
DANGER OR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
FOR SUNDAY, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 50-60 MPH CAUSING
VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES MOVING IN ALONG WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY ABOVE 45% AND
SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES, FIRE DANGER CONCERNS SHOULD BE MORE
LIMITED.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT
THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047-048.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ049>053-067>071-082-083-091>095-098-099.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ072-096-100.
DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...RBL
FIRE WEATHER...GC
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